Showing posts with label Ken Griffey Jr.. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ken Griffey Jr.. Show all posts

3.05.2009

OBP: "Oh Brandon Phillips"

Brandon Phillips made it clear today that he doesn't believe in the idea of OBP, aka on-base percentage, aka the measurement of how often a batter reaches base. In an Enquirer article out today, Phillips had all sorts of interesting things to say. Here are some of the most interesting.

"I don't believe in that on-base percentage (stuff). That's overrated to me. If you get hits, you'll be on base. That's what it's about."

This sounds like something a good player with a low OBP would say, or someone who is confusing real baseball with video game baseball. We all know what Dusty said recently about OBP, in reference to Willy Taveras and his lack thereof--"Everyone talks about his on-base percentage. I like the way he gets in scoring position." It appears this backwards outlook has rubbed off on our bright young grinning star.

"I'm a hitter. I swing the bat. I'm an aggressive hitter. They want me to work on [being patient], and I'll try my best. But I'm a hitter."

These quotes explain a lot about Brandon, who doesn't seem to know the difference between being a hitter and a hacker. The latter might have a career SO/BB ratio of 3:1 like Brandon does. It's okay to be aggressive but you can really hurt your team in many ways by swinging at crap pitches, which Brandon is amazing at.

"My numbers were good last year. For me to hit 20-plus homers, steal 20-plus bags and have 70-plus RBI, that's a good season, especially for a second basemen."

Brandon sounds pretty defensive, and maybe he should be. When he puts it that way, yes, he did put up pretty solid numbers for a second basemen. But when you zoom out and see that all his offensive numbers went down at an age when numbers should spike, that for his 23 swipes he was nailed 10 times, that he might have netted more RBI had he not batted .225 in 71 ABs with two outs and runners in scoring position, those general numbers lose some luster.

"I think [the Reds new emphasis on speed] is a good thing--moving runners from first to second and second to third. It's good to have speed on the team. Speed kills. We've been relying on the home run for so many years. We've had eight losing seasons. The way I look at it: It's time for a change. Walt Jocketty brought that in. We're 100 percent behind him."

When the hell did Brandon Phillips become the Machurian Candidate? I can see Brandon saying this quote in a monotone droll, his eyes not focused on anything in front of him, a Reds PR person coming out to the podium and taking him by the arm, "Okay Brandon, that will be all for today, good job." Brandon doesn't respond and is walked out of the room and placed in his pod for the night. Seriously Brandon, get with it. Speed isn't nearly as effective when you have a .319 career OBP as a Red. When you learn to get on base, we become a much more dangerous team. And to say we've been relying on home runs for the past eight years, why not just come out and blame it on Dunn and Griff? What about the other six or seven batters during that period? Couldn't they have balanced out the home run attack with some good hitting and speed. Couldn't they have done something to help win games? And what about the scalliwag pitching during those years? Somebody cut my cord. I'm turning into a crank. There can't possibly be more, can there?

"I'm not a typical fourth hitter. But who else on the team is going to do it?"

I give up. Brandon, I like you, but we have some fundamental baseball disagreements. With that kind of attitude, you will never develop into a professional hitter as they say, one who can manipulate the strike zone and make the pitcher work overtime, one who can help the team by taking ball four instead golfing for strike three. If you raise your OBP 70 points, you are Joe Morgan. That's how good you can be. Now get out there and stop trying to be Wily Mo Pena.


2.17.2009

Random Musings on Defense, Speed and Pitching


1. Defense, speed and pitching. That's how we're going to win this year. You've heard it from Bob Castenelli. You've heard it from Walt Jocketty. You've heard it from Dusty. And you've heard it from all the fans drinking the red Kool-aid. That's fine. Every year there are new reasons to be excited, and how can you not be a little excited for another season of Reds baseball on the horizon.

2. So we couldn't win during the long ball era. I guess we should blame that on Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr., and not on starting pitchers Matt Belisle, Eric Milton, Elizardo Ramirez, Brandon Claussen, Ramon Ortiz, Luke Hudson, Paul Wilson, Jose Acevedo, Cory Lidle, Todd Van Poppel, Ryan Dempster (when he sucked), Jimmy Haynes, Chris Rietsma, Lance Davis, Osvaldo Fernandez and the various management teams who acquired these players.

3. Ryan Howard's 2008 line: .251/.339/.543, 12.7 ABs/HR, 3.07 ABs/SO
Adam Dunn's 2008 line: .236/.386/.513, 12.9 ABs/HR, 3.15 ABs/SO
Ryan Howard finishes 2nd in MVP voting and his team wins the World Series. Adam Dunn is shown the door, traded to Arizona for potential 5th starter Micah Owings.
Point: It helps to be surrounded by good players.

4. Similar batters comparable to Adam Dunn through age 28 as compiled by Baseball Reference: Darryl Strawberry, Jose Canseco, Harmon Killebrew, Rocky Colavito, Reggie Jackson, Troy Glaus, Roger Maris.
Similar batters comparable to Chris Dickerson/Jerry Hairston Jr./Jonny Gomes: who cares.
Point: I would sacrifice some defense to have a lumber bat in the current Reds lineup. The World Champion Phillies surrounded Howard with good hitters and speed. If the Reds had kept Adam Dunn, they could have formed a similar balance, but instead, we released him just as all the pieces were starting to fall in place.

5. Often in baseball, the term "defense, pitching and speed" is masked language for "we're kinda poor."

1.13.2009

The Best Hitters in the NL Central

One of the best ways to measure a hitter is adjusted OPS, or OPS+. If you already know what OPS+ is, I am sorry, bear with me. If not, you should pay attention. While standard OPS is simply on-base percentage plus slugging percentage (OBP + SLG), adjusted OPS is a complicated formula that takes into consideration ballpark factor (sorry Vinny Castilla) and league averages for OBP and SLG in that players league. The resulting number is the rate above the league average expressed as a percentage. All you really need to know is 100 always represents the league average. The higher above 100, the better. The farther under 100, the worse. For example, let's take Albert Pujols in 2008 when he finished with an astronomical 190 OPS+. Albert was damn near close to being twice as productive as the average major league hitter. The only player with a career OPS+ over 200 is Babe Ruth (207). Albert is tied for seventh in career OPS+ (170).

Here are the highest OPS+ seasons for the NL Central in 2007 and 2008 including everyone over 100 with at least a 400 AB season (sorry Jerry Hairston Jr.).


2008




2007


1

A. Pujols

190


1

A. Pujols

157

2

L. Berkman

159


2

P. Fielder

156

3

R. Ludwick

150


3

R. Braun

153

4

C. Lee

144


4

A. Dunn

136

5

T. Glaus

131


T5

L. Berkman

131

6

A. Dunn

129


T5

D. Lee

131

T7

A. Ramirez

128


7

H. Pence

130

T7

P. Fielder

128


8

A. Ramirez

129

T7

R. Braun

128


T9

C. Hart

126

T7

R. Doumit

128


T9

C. Lee

126

11

N. McLouth

126


11

A. Soriano

123

12

J. Votto

124


12

K. Griffey Jr

119

13

A. LaRoche

123


T13

R. Weeks

108

14

A. Soriano

121


T13

A. LaRoche

108

15

G. Soto

120


15

X. Nady

107

16

R. Ankiel

119


T16

B. Phillips

105

17

M. DeRosa

118


T16

J. Wilson

105

18

J. Hardy

113


18

F. Sanchez

103

T19

M. Cameron

110


19

M. DeRosa

102

T19

D. Lee

110


20

E. Encarnac…

101

T21

E. Encarnac…

106


21

G. Jenkins

101

T21

K. Matsui

106


22

J. Hardy

100

23

H. Pence

105





24

S. Schumach..

102





25

K. Griffey Jr.

101






Some things that come to mind...
  • Albert Pujols is a destroyer of all things spherical.
  • Is Ryan Ludwick really that good?
  • Adam Dunn was one of the Top 5 most productive hitters in the NL Central.
  • Joey Votto had a very good rookie year and should only get better.
  • Brandon Phillips finished with a rather low OPS+ for his breakthrough year, lower than Rickie Weeks and tied with Jack Wilson, who resembles Nosferatu.
  • Well I'll be a monkey's ass, is that Edwin Encarnacion on there, twice? Are we treating poor Edwin unfairly?
  • He might have been aging and crippled, but Junior was still an above average producer at the plate in his waning Reds years.
  • Why is Derrek Lee's name auburn-colored? I hate formatting text.

And just for fun, the highest career OPS+ players active...
1. Barry Bonds (182)
2. Albert Pujols (170)
3. Frank Thomas (156)
4. Manny Ramirez (155)
5. Lance Berkman (148)
5. Jim Thome (148)
7. Vladimir Guerrero (147)
7. Alex Rodriguez (147)
9. Jason Giambi (146)
10. Chipper Jones (145)

1.03.2009

The Best Offensive Seasons of the Past 15 Years

Hands down, the best offensive season of the past fifteen years came from a man named Kevin "I Don't Need No Stinkin' Glove" Mitchell in the strike-shortened 1994 season. The Reds finished 66-48 in 104 games and were not given a chance to win the World Series (figures). Mitchell was on pace for 47 Dongs, 121 RBIs, a .326 BA, .429 OBP and 681 SLG!!! But this season just wasn't meant to be. Mitchell finished the year with 310 ABs, 30 Dongs and 77 RBIs, with his averages staying the same. Not too shabby for two-thirds of a year.

Sidenote: Legend has it that during the Mets 1986 Championship run, Kevin Mitchell decapitated his girlfriend's cat. This is according to Doc Gooden's autobiography Heat. Gooden says he was held hostage during the situation.

Moving on, here are the next best individual offensive seasons since 1994...

Player

Year

AB

BA

OBP

SLG

PROD

HR

RBI

SB

2

B. Larkin

1996

517

.298

.410

.567

.977

33

89

36

3

R. Sanders

1995

484

.306

.397

.579

.976

28

99

36

4

A. Dunn

2004

568

.266

.388

.569

.957

46

102

6

5

S. Casey

1999

594

.332

.399

.539

.938

25

99

0

6

B. Larkin

1995

496

.319

.394

.492

.886

15

66

51

7

S. Casey

2004

571

.324

.381

.534

.915

24

99

2

8

K. Griffey

2000

520

.271

.387

.556

.943

40

118

6

9

K. Griffey

2005

491

.301

.369

.576

.945

35

92

0

10

A. Dunn

2007

522

.264

.386

.554

.940

40

106

9

11

A. Dunn

2005

543

.247

.387

.540

.927

40

101

5

12

B. Larkin

1998

538

.309

.397

.504

.901

17

72

26

13

S. Casey

2000

480

.315

.385

.517

.902

20

85

1

14

E. Davis

1996

415

.287

.394

.523

.917

26

83

23

RBIs and Stolen Bases are cut off on this chart. Larkin had 36, 51 and 26 steals respectively. Sanders had 36. Davis had 23. The only +100 RBI seasons on the list came from Dunn (102, 106, 101) and Griffey (118). Casey had 99 RBIs twice. So close.

Some things that come to mind...
A.) Barry Larking was amazing (Brandon Phillips who?)
B.) Reggie Sanders and Eric Davis were my favorites growing up.
C.) Adam Dunn gets no respect.
D.) When healthy*, Griff was the best player on the team (*unlucky bastard).
E.) Sean Casey was a good hitter, and a huge dork.