Ranks: NL Central First Basemen

1. The Destroyer of All Things Spherical, 29--STL
2. Lance Berkman, 33--HOU
3. Prince Fielder, 25--MIL
4. Joey Votto, 25--CIN
5. Derrek Lee, 33--CHI
6. Adam LaRoche, 29--PIT

If you're a Reds fan, this list is rather depressing. The NL Central has a stranglehold on the rest of baseball with first base talent. Joey Votto really gets shafted here, and I was generous not to put Derrek Lee ahead of him as many others would.

There is no easier rank in baseball than placing Albert Pujols 1st on this list. Abolutely terrifying is the fact that Albert is coming off his best season (.357/.462/.653). He eats Lance Berkman's for breakfast, and Lance Berkman is amazing, a steady lock in the two spot. Did you know that Lance stole 18 bases last year and was only caught 4 times? That's 14 true stolen bases for someone with the nicknames Big Puma and Fat Elvis. Brandon Phillips only had 13 true stolen bases last year. Ouchies! If Lance can do it, so can you Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion and Alex Gonzalez.

Prince Fielder is 3rd, even though Joey's rookie numbers matched Prince's last year. They are the same age, but Prince has a 50 HR season under his double-sized belt. Derrek Lee, 5th on this list, was one of the more underrated players in the game until he went nuts in 2005 (.335/.418/.662). While he hasn't matched that production since, he is getting more recognition now, as his numbers begin to sag. Even Adam LaRoche, the last man on the list, has a career 114 OPS+. Damn Gina!

Joey Votto is not a defensive rock like Pujols or Lee, but he will get great practice as long as Edwin mans the hot corner. Joey might only be the 4th best first basemen in the NL Central, but he's probably 6th-8th in the NL right now--and he's just getting started. Joey will never put up Albert numbers and it would be unfair to expect Berkman numbers, but we can expect him to outperform Fielder and Lee this year. After all, he is our big bat.

Scouting Report: Alex Gonzalez, Who Does Exist

Offense:
Did you know that Alex Gonzalez has finished with an OPS+ below the league average in all 10 seasons? His best offensive stint occurred in 2007, his first year with the Reds, when he hit .272/.325/.468 with a 99 OPS+ in about two-thirds of a season. This was phenomenal for Alex compared to his career averages (.248/.295/.399 and an 80 OPS+). Because Alex is not a power hitter (106 HRs in 4,002 ABs) there is no reason why he strikes out as often as he does, every 4.9 ABs. Alex seems to have Brandon Phillips syndrome--he swings about three times too hard.

Defense:
Alex has more range than No Country For Old Men. If it's hit between second and third you can bet your bippy Alex is going to at least attempt to make a play. This might be why his career fielding percentage is under the league average for shortstops--he doesn't know when to eat it. If Alex backhands a Juan Pierre grounder deep in the hole and Juan has already crossed first base, there's a good chance Alex will still throw the ball. And there's a good chance that ball will go over Joey Votto's head and five runners will score because Bronson Arroyo is pitching and only Bronson Arroyo can have an inning that bad.

Overall:
There's no denying Alex's sexiness. When he successfully makes that play in the hole against Juan Pierre, there is not much else to do but fall out of your chair with the giggles. And when he follows that next inning with a solo shot into the left field bleachers, there is not much else to do but die. But like with any sexy person, it's easy to get caught up in the image. Numbers don't lie.

STAT WATCH: Alex needs to stop swinging and missing. 4.9 ABs/SO is not good for a Punch-and-Judy hitter. If he can cut it to 7 ABs/SO we will observe a pleasant rise in his offensive numbers. It will be hard to watch a .250-hitting Alex get the nod ahead of Jeff Keppinger, who will hit at least .300 if healthy. If Alex can hit .285, which he's never done, I'll be happy. This is another way of saying I probably won't be happy. In this blogger's humble opinion, shortstop should be Keppinger's to lose.

Show Me the Money, '09!

The official propaganda machine of the Cincinnati Reds, reds.com, released an article recently with some updated salary figures for the 2009 season. Among them, some changes from last year...

• Francisco Cordero is taking everyone out to dinner as the highest paid Red at $12 mil, roughly $171,000/inning.
• Aaron Harang, coming off his worst Reds season, is rewarded with a few more millions. Why not!
• Brandon Phillips, fresh from laying a turd at home plate last season, will get nearly double with $4.75 million (gotta love that Gold Glove bonus!).
• Alex Gonzalez continues to kkkkkiiiiiillllllllllllllll us.
• Bronson Arroyo now almost makes $10 million a year, not including his JTM advertising monopoly which is rumored at hundreds of dollars.
• Matt Belisle still has not received his paychecks from the last four years of his service.

Where Does the Money Go?

At the end of MLB fiscal year 2008, the Reds ranked 18th in payroll just above $74 million, fifth among NL Central teams. Here is how they spent the money (numbers rounded).

Adam Dunn--$13 mil
Francisco Cordero--$8.6 mil
Ken Griffey Jr.--$8.3 mil
Aaron Harang--$6.75 mil
Alex Gonzalez--$4.6 mil
Bronson Arroyo--$4.6 mil
David Weathers--$3.3 mil
Mike Stanton--$3 mil
Ryan Freel--$3 mil
Jeremy Affeldt--$3 mil
Brandon Phillips--$2.94 mil
David Ross--$2.53 mil
Scott Hatteberg--$1.85 mil
Josh Fogg--$1.5 mil
Javier Valentin--$1.35 mil
Matt Belisle--$1.25 mil
Juan Castro--$975 thou
Todd Coffee--$907 thou
Mike Lincoln--$550 thou
Edwin Encarnacion--$450 thou
Norris Hopper--$402 thou
Jeff Keppinger--$402 thou
Jared Burton--$395 thou
Edinson Volquez--$392 thou
Bobby Livingston--$392 thou

and those poor league minimum bastards...
Joey Votto--$390 thou
Johnny Cueto--$390 thou
Jay Bruce--$390 thou

Things to notice...

• Who the hell is responsible for giving Matt Belisle over a million dollars.
• The Reds slashed 55% of their 2008 payroll. About 20% of that will go to Ramon "the most overpaid catcher in baseball" Hernandez in 2009.
• Bobby Livingston, who spent all of 2008 in AAA, made more than Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto and Jay Bruce, and the same as Edinson Volquez.
• Assuming the baby Reds (Edinson, Johnny, Jay, Joey) all grow up to be fantastic, the Reds are going to have a hell of a payday in 2011 when all are eligible for arbitration, and then in 2014 when all are eligible for free agency. If the Reds haven't flirted with the postseason by then, it will be fun to witness the dismantling of a team!
• Matt Belisle is a millionaire. Shit.
• Alex Gonzalez is kkkkkkiiiiiiiillllliiiiiinnnnggggg us.
• Edwin is in arbitration right now and should become a millionaire in the near future, barring the Reds trick him into playing for free, which sadly might happen.
• If you don't understand arbitration, MLB service time, free agency, Super Two players and why Jay Bruce wasn't called up sooner, you MUST read this article.

Scouting Report: Jeff Keppinger

Offense:

No matter how hard you try, you will probably not strikeout Jeff Keppinger, who led the National League with 19.1 ABs/SO. That is certainly tidy. Just ask Adam Dunn, sloppy bastard, who averaged 3.15 ABs/SO. There is no secret to what Jeff does. He simply puts the bat on the ball. He is a prototypical 2-hitter. He is so, so good at advancing runners and hitting the ball where it's pitched. He has the special talent of picking a spot in the infield and hitting the ball there. That is harder than it looks. He had a tremendous 2007 in part-time action (123 OPS+), but then took a major dunk in his pants in 2008 (70 OPS+).

Defense:

Ignoring Jeff's resemblance to Elmer Fudd in body type and height of hat, he surpassed expectations as a shortstop even though he is not fluid or graceful, doesn't have a strong arm, and is white. Simply put, Jeff is fundamental, which I believe is still considered a compliment.

Overall:

Wherever Jeff goes, a starting infielder has a horrific injury and Jeff steps in. Did you hear that Edwin?--You could be next. After Jeff stamped his major league ticket in 2007 with a team saving performance, he got a taste of his own, fracturing his patella 147 ABs into 2008. Up until then, he was batting .320/.365/.442, similar to his excellent 2007 line. In the 311 ABs after his return, however, he hit .238/.281/.299 - a brutal first-hand account of what happens when, God forbid, you fracture a patella. Jeff is fully rehealed from his injury, but then again, so is Alex Gonzalez, who apparently is real. In order to get some ABs this year, Jeff might have to learn how to play left field, or wait for Edwin to "fall" down the dugout steps.

STAT WATCH: If Keppinger is healthy and in the line-up, he will hit, I think. Most other Reds fans think so too, they think. Most would give Jeff the starting job to lose at shortstop, but unfortunately, Alex Gonzalez, who I hear does actually exist in our world, will be handed the job without question. This is sad for Jeff, but if Gonzalez has forgotten how to play the game, this is good for Jeff. Bat over .300 Jeff.

Scouting Report: Jerry Hairston Jr.

Offense
Jerry Hairston Jr. has played ten platoon/utility-filled seasons. Jerry Hairston Jr. has had one really good platoon/utility-filled season. That was last year—enough for the Reds to resign him recently to a one-year contract worth $2 million. Hairston is a career .260/.330/.370 hitter, even more depressing when considering he might have been juiced: see Mitchell Report, page 78,789. Jerry Jr. had an unusual 2008. He was knocked unconscious during spring training. When he awoke months after the season, he was surprised to learn he had batted 261 times with great success (.326/.384/.487).

Defense
Jerry Jr. played six positions for the Reds last year (SS, LF, CF, RF, 2B and 3B, in order of starts by position). He served admirably at shortstop with Alex Gonzalez and Jeff Keppinger both sidelined by injuries.

Overall
Jerry has tenacity and he appears to be a bit of an angry fellow. This is probably because he has been competing for a starting Major League job for 11 seasons. Every game last year, when the FSN camerman zoomed in on Jerry's face, his expression resembled a lion who's prey had been overtaken by a herd of hyenas. But maybe it is this drive, this willingness, that will push Jerry towards an everyday role with the Reds in the future. It is also of note that Jerry reportedly converted to the Jehovah's Witness faith in 2000, but rest assured, he has vowed not to knock on Saturday mornings. Did I mention he was an angry fellow.

STAT WATCH: Depending on what the Reds do with their left field vacancy, and depending on the health of Gonzalez and Keppinger, and depending on the health of himself, Jerry might or might not play a lot this year. If he does play on a regular basis, we need Jerry 2008. If Jerry becomes our permanent left fielder (sweet jesus), he's gonna have to hit, hit, hit. If he becomes our permanent shortstop, he's gonna have to hit, field, hit, hit. Jerry, you're a sparkplug. We need you standing on a base 36% of the time. Eat the meat. Attack the hyena herd.