John Fay accomplishes the impossible

This is hard for me, because from what I know, John Fay is a good Enquirer reporter, as honest a source as you're going to get in reference to the Reds. He also seems like a polite man, one who dresses semi-casually and would make a tremendous uncle. You'll never catch John in his undies on a Saturday morning knock, let's just put it that way.

So you could imagine my anticipation when I read the title of his story yesterday on the Enquirer web page:

Rotation takes shape

and the lede: Reds manager Dusty Baker revealed on Friday how the rest of the rotation will shape up behind Opening Day starter Aaron Harang.

Hold on for one second while I change my pants because I seem to have saturated them with urine. It appeared that Dusty made the doomsday decision of selecting Owings or Bailey for the 5th starter spot! The decision would have been slightly premature with 20 days 'til Opening Day, but then again, we're talking about Dusty here. The man has some dumbfounding methods.

To make a long story short (and I wouldn't even bother reading the article even though I've posted a link to it thus giving you the option ro read it even after my suggestion not to read it, because I'm pro-choice), the article revealed the rest of the rotation after Harang to be (pay close attention): Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto and...and...ummm....nothing........no mention of anything about the 5th starter.....oh, wait, except for an Edinson quote about how he was happy not to be the 5th starter this year. "Damn you John," the blogger screams at the top of his lungs, holding and shaking his fist in the air.

And with that, John Fay accomplished the impossible by writing an article about the set pitching rotation without mentioning Homer Bailey or Micah Owings--not one mention of either. You should know that most reporters do not get final say on the title of their story (that's a job for the pompous editors), but even still, John's lede was cruel and unusual punishment for all Reds fans. If you read the article not knowing anything about baseball or the Reds, you probably just assume that the Reds are going with a 4-man rotation.

And the dazzling finale:

Cueto will start Sunday in place of Nick Masset. Masset will be used in relief of Cueto. "(Cueto's) only warmed up as a starter," Baker said.

Riggghhhhhttttt?

How Many Wins This Year? (feat. the 2000 Cincinnati Reds and T-Pain)

The last winning Reds season was 2000 when we finished 85-77, good for 2nd in the division, still ten wins behind the pennant-winning Cardinals. That was Griff's first year. My, how things change.

National League Ranks

5th in total runs (825)

4th in batting average (.274)

5th in home runs (200)

6th in OPS+ (103)

5th in ERA (4.33)

T-4th in ERA+ (109)

The pitching staff featured starters Steve Parris, Rob Bell, Ron Villone, Pete Harnisch, Denny Neagle, Osvaldo Fernandez, Elmer Dessens and relievers Danny Graves, Scott Sullivan and Scott Williamson. The offense featured Benito Santiago, Pokey Reese, Barry Larkin, Aaron Boone, Dmitri Young, Ken Griffey Jr., Dante Bichette, Chris Stynes, Michael Tucker and Alex Ochoa, all of whom finished with an OPS+ over 100 for the exception of Santiago and Reese.

The 2008 team finished 74-88, 5th in the division.

National League Ranks

12th in total runs (704)
16th in batting average (.247)

4th in home runs (187)

14th in OPS+ (93)

13th in ERA (4.55)

9th in ERA+ (99)

The 2009 pitching staff is in position to be better than the 2000 squad. I still have a hard time believing we finished at 85 wins with a 1. Steve Parris 2. Rob Bell 3. Ron Villone rotation for most of the year. If the 2009 staff can pitch to potential and become a Top-5 staff in the NL, as was the 2000 staff (still not sure how that happened), then we have a chance at 85 wins. Holding us back will be a young, developing offense. For 85 wins to occur, many of our hitters will need career years or breakout years or not-bad years.

Starting with 74 wins, let's do some math...

Not having Josh Fogg = +3 wins

Not having Matt Belisle = +1 win

Not having 2008 Homer Bailey = +1 win

Johnny Cueto a year older = +2 wins

Aaron Harang not smoking crack = +2 wins

Not having Adam Dunn = -1 win

366 Taveras ABs over 366 Patterson ABs = +1 win

Offensive improvement from Phillips, Encarnacion, Votto and Bruce = +5 wins

The bullpen not topping last years performance= -2 wins

Best case scenario: 86 wins, 2nd in the division, Wildcard!!!

Worst case scenario: 76 wins, 5th in the division, Two of diamonds

My scenario: 81 wins, 3rd in the division, Queen of hearts

And now.........T-Pain

Spring Training is Here (Take Your Shirt Off and Wave it Around Your Head Like a Helicopter edition)

1. After a 7-0 hosing of the AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays, I was highly entertained reading the Reds message boards on Reds.com and Cincinnati.com. After nine innings of Spring Training baseball, all those preseason predictions were reaffirmed. In short, we're going to the World Series!!!

One of my favorites from Reds.com...
"I was encouraged over one key stat on offense too. Only 5 strikeouts!!!!!!!!!!!! Again, I know this is only one game, but we have players who can make contact now, instead of swinging for the fences and missing most of the time! I hope too that this new trend continues! I'm looking forward to this year's ball club! I think we will be a lot of fun and will even surprise some Reds fans!"

Nine innings of a Spring Training game, and what do you know, SMALL BALL has arrived. And considering that 6 of our 7 runs came on homers, it's fairly clear this guy has a red Kool-aid mustache and no baseball friends. If the Reds would have lost today and struck out 13 times, the quote would have gone...
"It's okay that we struck out a lot today. It's only the first game of Spring Training. Everyone is going to be a little rusty. Oh, and also, if anybody on the message board wants to meet for lunch at LaRosa's tomorrow, call me 1-800-IMAKEPOOROBSERVATIONS."

2. You will not find recycled game recaps from Spring Training on The Red Scare. You will also not find microanalyzation of Spring Training box scores either as to the tune of the following example...

"Holy Smokes, Homer Bailey sure threw well today, retiring the side in the seventh. Insert speculative sentence that starts with, "I know this was only one game but..." Insert speculative sentence about how the Reds might use Homer out of the bullpen to start the season. Insert speculative sentence about how Homer has more to prove than anyone this spring. Insert speculative sentence questioning where Homer will start the year. Insert speculative sentence about you're own speculation. Finish paragraph with a sentence that ends, "...but that depends on what Dusty does."

I think that Spring Training speculation is tiresome and repititious. In short, I think roster spots are generally predetermined. If Homer Bailey throws 18 innings of shutout ball in Spring Training, I still don't care. If Brandon Phillips goes 0-56 in Spring Training, he will still start on Opening Day. If Laynce Nix goes 23-56 in Spring Training, he might not make the team.

3. Batting Brandon Phillips cleanup is quite possibly the most absurd thing I've ever heard, almost as baffling as when they batted Adam Dunn second. With a slew of left-handed power hitters over the last five years, the Reds have become obsessed with seperating the lefties and batting an alternate left-right-left-right order. Lineup construction these days is very similar to a children's game of follow the pattern. This is what the batting order should be, ignoring a million other scenarios-

1. Taveras
2. Dickerson/Hairston
3. Bruce
4. Votto
5. Phillips
6. Encarnacion
7. Gonzalez
8. Hernandez
9. Pitcher

My lineup puts three lefties in a row (Dickerson, Bruce, Votto), a mortal sin. But here's what makes it okay. Joey Votto is a .289 career hitter against lefties. He hits them almost as effectively as he hits righties. Votto is nearly a better hitter against his own side than the right-handed Brandon Phillips (career .294 BA against LHP). This makes the lefty-righty pattern obsolete. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. This is clear. There is no justification. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. If you think Brandon makes a good cleanup hitter, stop watching baseball.

Scouting Report: Chris Dickerson

Offense
C-Dicks had an enchanted 2008. Called up during the dog days of summer with half of the Reds either injured or too demoralized to play, Dickerson put on his big-boy pants and came to work. In a cup of coffee (106 AB), he batted .304/.413/.618!!! Those numbers are almost as good as Albert Pujols' lifetime line. But let's not get too excited. In five minor league seasons, young Dickerson was a .260/.360/.415 hitter. This isn't too terrible when we consider the 100 point difference between his BA and OBP, which means Chris is patient at the plate and draws walks. This is hard to teach many young hitters but Chris seems to understand the strike zone, thus, he has the proper foundation to be a professional hitter. He will, however, have to cut down on the strikeouts (the main source of his low BA).

Defense
He's an agile, quick outfielder. Aren't they all?

Overall
Dickerson is an all-around athlete with 30 SB potential. It will take time for him to fully develop his game and it's doubtful he will finish next season with numbers remotely close to what he did in 2008, that is, if he even stays in the majors. He hasn't experienced a Major slump yet (inevitable) and when it happens, it will be very, very ugly. But let's hope the Reds give him at least half a year to prove himself. We'll see if Dickerson is a real power hitter. Something tells me not really, but then again, I've learned to be a pessimist as a Reds fan. He's 27 years old. It's time young Dickerson. Oh, and he seems to be a really good guy. Thanks to Matt F. for the link.

STAT WATCH: Rarely does a major leaguer drastically improve upon his minor league numbers. Because the Reds have yet to sign a legit starting left fielder, Chris might see a starting position there depending on how he performs this spring. Another scenario might pit Chris platooning in left with Jerry Hairston Jr., creating a unique individual player named Chrissy Dickston III. Dickerson has that magic nine-letter word: P-O-T-E-N-T-I-A-L. Then again, so does Homer Bailey. Chris, we have no idea what to expect from you. Just do good.