25-Man Roster Prediction

Players in bold are my blanket picks.

Starters

Aaron Harang
Edinson Volquez

Bronson Arroyo

Johnny Cueto

x-Micah Owings

Relievers

Francisco Cordero

Jared Burton

Bill Bray

Mike Lincoln

Arthur Rhodes

David Weathers

Catchers

Ramon Hernandez

x-Ryan Hanigan

Infielders

Joey Votto

Brandon Phillips

Alex Gonzalez

Edwin Encarnacion

Jeff Keppinger

x-Darryl Ward

Outfielders

Jay Bruce

Willy Taveras

Chris Dickerson

Jerry Hairston Jr.

x-Little Norris Hopper

x-Jonny Gomes

Micah Owings gets the nod above all the other 5th starter candidates, including Homer Bailey, for three reasons:

1. He has ample big league experience regardless of how craptastic his line is.

2. He is one of the best hitting pitchers in baseball, a la Zambrano, and will be used as a pinch hitter.

3. He is the only one of the three D-Backs that came over in the Dunn trade who has a legit shot at making the team this year. The Reds want to prove they got something from the deal other than cap space.

Ryan Hanigan, who has zero power, will be our backup catcher simply because there is no one else and because he had a cup of coffee at the end of last year and managed not to embarrass himself. Maybe down the road Ryan can help usher in a newer model of the Three-Headed Suck Monster.

This is where things get a little sticky. Because Jerry Hairston Jr. can platoon in the infield as well as the outfield, he and Jeff Keppinger will be the reserve infielders, both able to play third, short and second. Darryl Ward will take the final infield spot to backup Joey Votto at first and also provide a power bat and veteran pinch hitting option off the bench.

This leaves two reserve outfield spots for about ten players. Little Norris Hopper needs to be one of these players, as a backup to Taveras in center and a sacrificial lamb with speed off the bench. The other needs to have a big bat and must be willing to charge the mound when things get testy. Enter Jonny Gomes.

Reds.comments: Bless Their Hearts

EDITOR'S NOTE

This will be a reoccurring segment on The Red Scare where we analyze certain fan comments posted under news articles and press releases from Reds.com, the official propaganda machine of the Cincinnati Reds.

On signing an outfielder

"Why Griffey Jr.? Did you see him play the past 8/9 years? He can't catch up to a 92 mph heater anymore. Walt has done an excellent job in the offseason acquiring players that make financial and team chemistry sense. Speed, defense, and pitching win games this days. Hernandez, Taveras, and Gomes were big acquistions this offseason. Remember when the Reds gave Cantu a chance two years ago? Can't wait for the season to start. GO REDS!!!!!!"

We won't go into the unfortunate injuries that have plagued Junior and how that has affected his play. But for the right price (which will not be that much) I wouldn't mind Junior off the bench. According to you, Walt has done "an excellent job" this offseason and "Hernandez, Taveras and Gomes were big acquisitions." Wow, you're easily impressed. You see, I would consider players like Bobby Abreu, Mark Teixiera and Milton Bradley as "big acquisitions." Keep drinking the water.

On the starting left fielder

"You have to start hairston, anyone can come up and hit 300 6 hrs and 15 rbi in the last 31 games of the season when no one is trying and a bunch of triple and double A cats are pitching. Hairston is faster than dickerson, will hit for a better avg, steal more bases and just be more of an asset to the team out in left. dont get me wrong i like dickerson but i think he has to prove himself in spring training to even be considered for the job."

I agree that Dickerson needs to prove himself, but give the guy some credit for putting up those numbers at the end of last year. You need to take your love affair with Jerry Hairston Jr. down a notch. He's a career .260/.330/.370 hitter who had a career year in his 11th season. Jerry is also linked to steroids in the Mitchell Report, but no one seems to give a crap because he's Jerry Hairston Jr. Give the young guy a chance to prove himself, not in Spring Training, but for the first month or two of the season. I think the idea of judging players by how they perform in Spring Training is silly. There are some fringe players that have incredible Spring Trainings and still don't make the squad and other players who make the squad after horrendous springs, which tells us that a majority of the roster spots are predetermined and involve money, not talent.

On not making any sense

"cincinasty got it right look at patterson last yr a baker buddy.last year had a lot to do with baker not the players when it comes to losing"

what?

Welcome: Darryl Ward and Jacque Jones (and still not Bobby Abreu)

Playing time for Chris Dickerson/Jerry Hairston Jr./Jonny Gomes just got a bit tighter with the recent signings of veterans Darryl Ward and Jacque Jones to minor league contracts (and for those wondering, the text layered over the profile pics was done through a new computer software called Microsoft Paint, where you can graffiti over the top of image files).

While there is no guarantee that either will make the Opening Day roster, Ward will mostly likely fill the tubby void left by Javier Valentin, formerly of the Three-Headed Suck Monster. Ward, who has seen time at first base and in the outfield in 11 seasons, is primarily a pinch hitter, which is a fancy way of saying Darryl isn't good enough to play defense and shouldn't be allowed to have 3-4 ABs a game. It's always hard to judge a pinch hitter's numbers because the sample size is miniscule and they are forever swinging cold, so a career .263/.320/.447 could be worse (see Javier Valentin). Darryl is aware of the enemy. He's played with Chicago, Houston and Pittsburgh.

When the Reds signed Jonny Gomes to a minor league contract a few weeks ago, fans were generally accepting of this move, mostly because it served as outfield insurance if Chris Dickerson didn't develop/Jerry Hairston Jr. returned to his normal self/Lance Nix played to expectations and sucked. Now with Jones competing for an outfield spot, the annual revolving door in the grass that Reds fans have become accustomed to is now complete (see 2008--Griffey, Dunn, Patterson, Hopper, Bruce, Freel, Hairston, Dickerson). Jones, in his 11th season, owns three worthy seasons (2002, 2003 and 2006).

There are those who will say, "The more players we have competing for the outfield job, the better." I disagree. This is only putting added pressure on Chris Dickerson. As soon as he slumps, they're going to replace him and I'm not sure this is a good thing. If there are too many players trying out in left, we'll never have any consistency in the order. Man, I sure wouldn't mind having Bobby Abreu for a year around $3 million. With Abreu, we possibly make a run at the Wild Card.

The Best Hitters in the NL Central

One of the best ways to measure a hitter is adjusted OPS, or OPS+. If you already know what OPS+ is, I am sorry, bear with me. If not, you should pay attention. While standard OPS is simply on-base percentage plus slugging percentage (OBP + SLG), adjusted OPS is a complicated formula that takes into consideration ballpark factor (sorry Vinny Castilla) and league averages for OBP and SLG in that players league. The resulting number is the rate above the league average expressed as a percentage. All you really need to know is 100 always represents the league average. The higher above 100, the better. The farther under 100, the worse. For example, let's take Albert Pujols in 2008 when he finished with an astronomical 190 OPS+. Albert was damn near close to being twice as productive as the average major league hitter. The only player with a career OPS+ over 200 is Babe Ruth (207). Albert is tied for seventh in career OPS+ (170).

Here are the highest OPS+ seasons for the NL Central in 2007 and 2008 including everyone over 100 with at least a 400 AB season (sorry Jerry Hairston Jr.).

	2008				2007
1	A. Pujols	190		1	A. Pujols	157
2	L. Berkman	159		2	P. Fielder	156
3	R. Ludwick	150		3	R. Braun	153
4	C. Lee	144		4	A. Dunn	136
5	T. Glaus	131		T5	L. Berkman	131
6	A. Dunn	129		T5	D. Lee	131
T7	A. Ramirez	128		7	H. Pence	130
T7	P. Fielder	128		8	A. Ramirez	129
T7	R. Braun	128		T9	C. Hart	126
T7	R. Doumit	128		T9	C. Lee	126
11	N. McLouth	126		11	A. Soriano	123
12	J. Votto	124		12	K. Griffey Jr	119
13	A. LaRoche	123		T13	R. Weeks	108
14	A. Soriano	121		T13	A. LaRoche	108
15	G. Soto	120		15	X. Nady	107
16	R. Ankiel	119		T16	B. Phillips	105
17	M. DeRosa	118		T16	J. Wilson	105
18	J. Hardy	113		18	F. Sanchez	103
T19	M. Cameron	110		19	M. DeRosa	102
T19	D. Lee	110		20	E. Encarnac…	101
T21	E. Encarnac…	106		21	G. Jenkins	101
T21	K. Matsui	106		22	J. Hardy	100
23	H. Pence	105
24	S. Schumach..	102
25	K. Griffey Jr.	101

Some things that come to mind...

• Albert Pujols is a destroyer of all things spherical.
• Is Ryan Ludwick really that good?
• Adam Dunn was one of the Top 5 most productive hitters in the NL Central.
• Joey Votto had a very good rookie year and should only get better.
• Brandon Phillips finished with a rather low OPS+ for his breakthrough year, lower than Rickie Weeks and tied with Jack Wilson, who resembles Nosferatu.
• Well I'll be a monkey's ass, is that Edwin Encarnacion on there, twice? Are we treating poor Edwin unfairly?
• He might have been aging and crippled, but Junior was still an above average producer at the plate in his waning Reds years.
• Why is Derrek Lee's name auburn-colored? I hate formatting text.

And just for fun, the highest career OPS+ players active...
1. Barry Bonds (182)
2. Albert Pujols (170)
3. Frank Thomas (156)
4. Manny Ramirez (155)
5. Lance Berkman (148)
5. Jim Thome (148)
7. Vladimir Guerrero (147)
7. Alex Rodriguez (147)
9. Jason Giambi (146)
10. Chipper Jones (145)

Scouting Report: Chris Dickerson

Offense
C-Dicks had an enchanted 2008. Called up during the dog days of summer with half of the Reds either injured or too demoralized to play, Dickerson put on his big-boy pants and came to work. In a cup of coffee (106 AB), he batted .304/.413/.618!!! Those numbers are almost as good as Albert Pujols' lifetime line. But let's not get too excited. In five minor league seasons, young Dickerson was a .260/.360/.415 hitter. This isn't too terrible when we consider the 100 point difference between his BA and OBP, which means Chris is patient at the plate and draws walks. This is hard to teach many young hitters but Chris seems to understand the strike zone, thus, he has the proper foundation to be a professional hitter. He will, however, have to cut down on the strikeouts (the main source of his low BA).

Defense
He's an agile, quick outfielder. Aren't they all?

Overall
Dickerson is an all-around athlete with 30 SB potential. It will take time for him to fully develop his game and it's doubtful he will finish next season with numbers remotely close to what he did in 2008, that is, if he even stays in the majors. He hasn't experienced a Major slump yet (inevitable) and when it happens, it will be very, very ugly. But let's hope the Reds give him at least half a year to prove himself. We'll see if Dickerson is a real power hitter. Something tells me not really, but then again, I've learned to be a pessimist as a Reds fan. He's 27 years old. It's time young Dickerson. Oh, and he seems to be a really good guy. Thanks to Matt F. for the link.

STAT WATCH: Rarely does a major leaguer drastically improve upon his minor league numbers. Because the Reds have yet to sign a legit starting left fielder, Chris might see a starting position there depending on how he performs this spring. Another scenario might pit Chris platooning in left with Jerry Hairston Jr., creating a unique individual player named Chrissy Dickston III. Dickerson has that magic nine-letter word: P-O-T-E-N-T-I-A-L. Then again, so does Homer Bailey. Chris, we have no idea what to expect from you. Just do good.

Scouting Report: Jerry Hairston Jr.

Offense
Jerry Hairston Jr. has played ten platoon/utility-filled seasons. Jerry Hairston Jr. has had one really good platoon/utility-filled season. That was last year—enough for the Reds to resign him recently to a one-year contract worth $2 million. Hairston is a career .260/.330/.370 hitter, even more depressing when considering he might have been juiced: see Mitchell Report, page 78,789. Jerry Jr. had an unusual 2008. He was knocked unconscious during spring training. When he awoke months after the season, he was surprised to learn he had batted 261 times with great success (.326/.384/.487).

Defense
Jerry Jr. played six positions for the Reds last year (SS, LF, CF, RF, 2B and 3B, in order of starts by position). He served admirably at shortstop with Alex Gonzalez and Jeff Keppinger both sidelined by injuries.

Overall
Jerry has tenacity and he appears to be a bit of an angry fellow. This is probably because he has been competing for a starting Major League job for 11 seasons. Every game last year, when the FSN camerman zoomed in on Jerry's face, his expression resembled a lion who's prey had been overtaken by a herd of hyenas. But maybe it is this drive, this willingness, that will push Jerry towards an everyday role with the Reds in the future. It is also of note that Jerry reportedly converted to the Jehovah's Witness faith in 2000, but rest assured, he has vowed not to knock on Saturday mornings. Did I mention he was an angry fellow.

STAT WATCH: Depending on what the Reds do with their left field vacancy, and depending on the health of Gonzalez and Keppinger, and depending on the health of himself, Jerry might or might not play a lot this year. If he does play on a regular basis, we need Jerry 2008. If Jerry becomes our permanent left fielder (sweet jesus), he's gonna have to hit, hit, hit. If he becomes our permanent shortstop, he's gonna have to hit, field, hit, hit. Jerry, you're a sparkplug. We need you standing on a base 36% of the time. Eat the meat. Attack the hyena herd.