John Fay accomplishes the impossible

This is hard for me, because from what I know, John Fay is a good Enquirer reporter, as honest a source as you're going to get in reference to the Reds. He also seems like a polite man, one who dresses semi-casually and would make a tremendous uncle. You'll never catch John in his undies on a Saturday morning knock, let's just put it that way.

So you could imagine my anticipation when I read the title of his story yesterday on the Enquirer web page:

Rotation takes shape

and the lede: Reds manager Dusty Baker revealed on Friday how the rest of the rotation will shape up behind Opening Day starter Aaron Harang.

Hold on for one second while I change my pants because I seem to have saturated them with urine. It appeared that Dusty made the doomsday decision of selecting Owings or Bailey for the 5th starter spot! The decision would have been slightly premature with 20 days 'til Opening Day, but then again, we're talking about Dusty here. The man has some dumbfounding methods.

To make a long story short (and I wouldn't even bother reading the article even though I've posted a link to it thus giving you the option ro read it even after my suggestion not to read it, because I'm pro-choice), the article revealed the rest of the rotation after Harang to be (pay close attention): Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto and...and...ummm....nothing........no mention of anything about the 5th starter.....oh, wait, except for an Edinson quote about how he was happy not to be the 5th starter this year. "Damn you John," the blogger screams at the top of his lungs, holding and shaking his fist in the air.

And with that, John Fay accomplished the impossible by writing an article about the set pitching rotation without mentioning Homer Bailey or Micah Owings--not one mention of either. You should know that most reporters do not get final say on the title of their story (that's a job for the pompous editors), but even still, John's lede was cruel and unusual punishment for all Reds fans. If you read the article not knowing anything about baseball or the Reds, you probably just assume that the Reds are going with a 4-man rotation.

And the dazzling finale:

Cueto will start Sunday in place of Nick Masset. Masset will be used in relief of Cueto. "(Cueto's) only warmed up as a starter," Baker said.

Riggghhhhhttttt?

How Many Wins This Year? (feat. the 2000 Cincinnati Reds and T-Pain)

The last winning Reds season was 2000 when we finished 85-77, good for 2nd in the division, still ten wins behind the pennant-winning Cardinals. That was Griff's first year. My, how things change.

National League Ranks

5th in total runs (825)

4th in batting average (.274)

5th in home runs (200)

6th in OPS+ (103)

5th in ERA (4.33)

T-4th in ERA+ (109)

The pitching staff featured starters Steve Parris, Rob Bell, Ron Villone, Pete Harnisch, Denny Neagle, Osvaldo Fernandez, Elmer Dessens and relievers Danny Graves, Scott Sullivan and Scott Williamson. The offense featured Benito Santiago, Pokey Reese, Barry Larkin, Aaron Boone, Dmitri Young, Ken Griffey Jr., Dante Bichette, Chris Stynes, Michael Tucker and Alex Ochoa, all of whom finished with an OPS+ over 100 for the exception of Santiago and Reese.

The 2008 team finished 74-88, 5th in the division.

National League Ranks

12th in total runs (704)
16th in batting average (.247)

4th in home runs (187)

14th in OPS+ (93)

13th in ERA (4.55)

9th in ERA+ (99)

The 2009 pitching staff is in position to be better than the 2000 squad. I still have a hard time believing we finished at 85 wins with a 1. Steve Parris 2. Rob Bell 3. Ron Villone rotation for most of the year. If the 2009 staff can pitch to potential and become a Top-5 staff in the NL, as was the 2000 staff (still not sure how that happened), then we have a chance at 85 wins. Holding us back will be a young, developing offense. For 85 wins to occur, many of our hitters will need career years or breakout years or not-bad years.

Starting with 74 wins, let's do some math...

Not having Josh Fogg = +3 wins

Not having Matt Belisle = +1 win

Not having 2008 Homer Bailey = +1 win

Johnny Cueto a year older = +2 wins

Aaron Harang not smoking crack = +2 wins

Not having Adam Dunn = -1 win

366 Taveras ABs over 366 Patterson ABs = +1 win

Offensive improvement from Phillips, Encarnacion, Votto and Bruce = +5 wins

The bullpen not topping last years performance= -2 wins

Best case scenario: 86 wins, 2nd in the division, Wildcard!!!

Worst case scenario: 76 wins, 5th in the division, Two of diamonds

My scenario: 81 wins, 3rd in the division, Queen of hearts

And now.........T-Pain

Where Does the Money Go?

At the end of MLB fiscal year 2008, the Reds ranked 18th in payroll just above $74 million, fifth among NL Central teams. Here is how they spent the money (numbers rounded).

Adam Dunn--$13 mil
Francisco Cordero--$8.6 mil
Ken Griffey Jr.--$8.3 mil
Aaron Harang--$6.75 mil
Alex Gonzalez--$4.6 mil
Bronson Arroyo--$4.6 mil
David Weathers--$3.3 mil
Mike Stanton--$3 mil
Ryan Freel--$3 mil
Jeremy Affeldt--$3 mil
Brandon Phillips--$2.94 mil
David Ross--$2.53 mil
Scott Hatteberg--$1.85 mil
Josh Fogg--$1.5 mil
Javier Valentin--$1.35 mil
Matt Belisle--$1.25 mil
Juan Castro--$975 thou
Todd Coffee--$907 thou
Mike Lincoln--$550 thou
Edwin Encarnacion--$450 thou
Norris Hopper--$402 thou
Jeff Keppinger--$402 thou
Jared Burton--$395 thou
Edinson Volquez--$392 thou
Bobby Livingston--$392 thou

and those poor league minimum bastards...
Joey Votto--$390 thou
Johnny Cueto--$390 thou
Jay Bruce--$390 thou

Things to notice...

• Who the hell is responsible for giving Matt Belisle over a million dollars.
• The Reds slashed 55% of their 2008 payroll. About 20% of that will go to Ramon "the most overpaid catcher in baseball" Hernandez in 2009.
• Bobby Livingston, who spent all of 2008 in AAA, made more than Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto and Jay Bruce, and the same as Edinson Volquez.
• Assuming the baby Reds (Edinson, Johnny, Jay, Joey) all grow up to be fantastic, the Reds are going to have a hell of a payday in 2011 when all are eligible for arbitration, and then in 2014 when all are eligible for free agency. If the Reds haven't flirted with the postseason by then, it will be fun to witness the dismantling of a team!
• Matt Belisle is a millionaire. Shit.
• Alex Gonzalez is kkkkkkiiiiiiiillllliiiiiinnnnggggg us.
• Edwin is in arbitration right now and should become a millionaire in the near future, barring the Reds trick him into playing for free, which sadly might happen.
• If you don't understand arbitration, MLB service time, free agency, Super Two players and why Jay Bruce wasn't called up sooner, you MUST read this article.

Scouting Report: Johnny Cueto

If a pitcher posts these numbers (174 IP, 9-14, 4.81 ERA), trade bait comes to mind. But when you're a 22-year-old rookie from the Dominican who averaged 8.18 SOs/9IP with a 96-mph fastball, you're probably safe for the time being. This is Johnny Cueto.

Johnny is one of a few Baby Reds, along with Edinson, Jay, Joey and Brandon, who will be unfairly asked to carry the load in 2009. He models his game after one Pedro Martinez, who is similar in body type, delivery, ethinicity, and who never backs down from a cockfight.

In 2007, Johnny went through the entire minor league gauntlet, earning his second consecutive Reds Minor League Pitcher of the Year award. Thanks to the failings of highly touted prospect Homer Bailey, who has yet to grow his set of testicles, Johnny nailed down a spot at the back end of the rotation with his major league debut performance on April 3, 2008, in a 7-inning, 1 ER, 10 SO performance against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Even though Johnny was brutalized in many following starts, the Reds stuck by him and were rewarded with some solid outings. He is still learning to be a pitcher and he relied too heavily on a fastball that was often placed waist high over the center of the plate. These baseballs often ended up in shrimp boat nets in the Gulf of Mexico, deposited from the Ohio into the Mississippi River.

As Johnny grows into a man and daydreams less and less in between innings about that one time he almost touched a girl's private parts behind the dance hall in San Pedro de Macoris, he will have the potential to become a 1 or 2 starter on a playoff team down the road. This of course will be on the team he is traded to after the Reds can't afford to offer him a major league contract.

STAT WATCH: Johnny will presumably be the fourth starter this year behind Volquez, Harang and Arroyo, which instantly makes him one of the best up-and-coming fourth starters in the bigs, if there is such a category. Steady improvement is what we want from Johnny. An ERA under 4.00 would be a major achievement for a 23-year-old. We also do not want Johnny to contract an STD or wear his arm down in the offseason participating in another sport, beisbol. We also do not want to discover that Johnny falsified his papers and is really 37.