John Fay accomplishes the impossible

This is hard for me, because from what I know, John Fay is a good Enquirer reporter, as honest a source as you're going to get in reference to the Reds. He also seems like a polite man, one who dresses semi-casually and would make a tremendous uncle. You'll never catch John in his undies on a Saturday morning knock, let's just put it that way.

So you could imagine my anticipation when I read the title of his story yesterday on the Enquirer web page:

Rotation takes shape

and the lede: Reds manager Dusty Baker revealed on Friday how the rest of the rotation will shape up behind Opening Day starter Aaron Harang.

Hold on for one second while I change my pants because I seem to have saturated them with urine. It appeared that Dusty made the doomsday decision of selecting Owings or Bailey for the 5th starter spot! The decision would have been slightly premature with 20 days 'til Opening Day, but then again, we're talking about Dusty here. The man has some dumbfounding methods.

To make a long story short (and I wouldn't even bother reading the article even though I've posted a link to it thus giving you the option ro read it even after my suggestion not to read it, because I'm pro-choice), the article revealed the rest of the rotation after Harang to be (pay close attention): Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto and...and...ummm....nothing........no mention of anything about the 5th starter.....oh, wait, except for an Edinson quote about how he was happy not to be the 5th starter this year. "Damn you John," the blogger screams at the top of his lungs, holding and shaking his fist in the air.

And with that, John Fay accomplished the impossible by writing an article about the set pitching rotation without mentioning Homer Bailey or Micah Owings--not one mention of either. You should know that most reporters do not get final say on the title of their story (that's a job for the pompous editors), but even still, John's lede was cruel and unusual punishment for all Reds fans. If you read the article not knowing anything about baseball or the Reds, you probably just assume that the Reds are going with a 4-man rotation.

And the dazzling finale:

Cueto will start Sunday in place of Nick Masset. Masset will be used in relief of Cueto. "(Cueto's) only warmed up as a starter," Baker said.

Riggghhhhhttttt?

Edinson Volquez: It's Hard Out There for a Pimp

EDITOR'S NOTE
**The music video promo that showcases Dominican rapper Maceo in a car with Edinson Volquez and a gun has been removed, probably by Major League Baseball. So I've posted the actually video. If you squint, you can spot Edinson around 3:05, waving Benjamins in the air like he just don't care. Pretty hilarious.



Hilarious sidenote: Reds.com, the official propaganda machine of the Reds, buried the Edinson/gun story under two articles written before it. Hmm.

Josh Hamilton's Love Affair with God, and also the Baby Jesus

"How am I here? I can only shrug and say, 'It's a God thing.' It's the only possible explanation."

"It's amazing that God allowed me to keep my baseball talents after I sat out three years and played only 15 games last season in A-ball."

"I get cravings sometimes, and I see it as the devil trying to catch me in a weak moment."

"And on this particular night, a little boy of about 9 or 10, wearing a Reds cap, handed me a pen and something to sign. Nothing unusual there, but as I was writing the boy said, 'Josh, you're my savior.' This stopped me. I looked at him and said, 'Well, thank you. Do you know who my savior is?' He thought for a minute. I could see the gears turning. Finally, he smiled and blurted out, 'Jesus Christ.' He said it like he'd just come up with the answer to a test. 'That's exactly right,' I said."

"I was completely desperate for God. For the first time in my life, I was just desperate for Him. I needed Him. I needed every bit of Him I could get. There was nothing in me that could get me through that time. I would be in my car praying for him, and it was just like I could feel God right there with me just bringing me so much peace and joy in the midst of a complete disaster."

"People think there are coincidences in life. There are no coincidences when God’s got a plan. It’s nothing I did except try to make the right choices and let God take over from there. There’s one solid and permanent way out of it, and that’s finding the Lord Jesus Christ and accepting Him."

Article from Great Christian Life: God uses Josh Hamilton to display His love and glory.

That will be all for now, but rest assured, Willy Taveras is giving this whole prayer thing a second thought.

Just thought of one last thing--how ironic would that be if Edinson Volquez was an atheist?

Ranks: NL Central Catchers

1. Geovany Soto, 26--CHI
2. Yadier Molina, 26--STL
3. Ryan Doumit, 28--PIT
4. Ramon Hernandez, 33--CIN
5. Jason Kendall, 35--MIL
6. Humberto Quintero, 29--HOU

As much as I hate to admit it, the Reds are slightly better with Ramon Hernandez than the Three-Headed Suck Monster, but that doesn't mean Ramon should earn $8 million this year. Judging by his numbers, he was only about a $500,000 upgrade. And even if you were a fan of the pick-up, he is only the 4th best catcher in the NL. Geovany Soto is coming off a 2008 ROY campaign where he hit .285/.364/.504 and established himself as a solid defense catcher. Yadier Molina won his first of many gold gloves (career 47.8% caught stealing) and has improved offensively each of the last three seasons. Ryan Doumit, in his first full year, batted .318/.357/.501 and finished with a 128 OPS+, tied for 7th in the Central with Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Aramis Ramirez. If he puts up similar numbers this year, I'll consider moving him ahead of Molina (I swear to God I'll do it).

So there you go. Ramon Hernandez is 4th, at best. And that's just in his division. He's coming off his worst year throwing out runners (19.5%) and he ain't gettin' much younger. From 2003-2006, Ramon put together a string of above average offensive years, made more valuable considering his position. But now, after two years of subpar numbers and growing wrinkles under his eyes, it's time for Ramon to prove himself to a new city. Sure, he's better than Jason Kendall, who still brings the huss and leadership bless his heart, and he outranks Humberto Quintero, who will probably never be mentioned in this blog ever again unless the sentence reads, "Edinson Volquez struck out Humberto Quintero four times last night," but the Reds are going to need at least an average offensive year from Ramon if they want to compete in the division.

Where Does the Money Go?

At the end of MLB fiscal year 2008, the Reds ranked 18th in payroll just above $74 million, fifth among NL Central teams. Here is how they spent the money (numbers rounded).

Adam Dunn--$13 mil
Francisco Cordero--$8.6 mil
Ken Griffey Jr.--$8.3 mil
Aaron Harang--$6.75 mil
Alex Gonzalez--$4.6 mil
Bronson Arroyo--$4.6 mil
David Weathers--$3.3 mil
Mike Stanton--$3 mil
Ryan Freel--$3 mil
Jeremy Affeldt--$3 mil
Brandon Phillips--$2.94 mil
David Ross--$2.53 mil
Scott Hatteberg--$1.85 mil
Josh Fogg--$1.5 mil
Javier Valentin--$1.35 mil
Matt Belisle--$1.25 mil
Juan Castro--$975 thou
Todd Coffee--$907 thou
Mike Lincoln--$550 thou
Edwin Encarnacion--$450 thou
Norris Hopper--$402 thou
Jeff Keppinger--$402 thou
Jared Burton--$395 thou
Edinson Volquez--$392 thou
Bobby Livingston--$392 thou

and those poor league minimum bastards...
Joey Votto--$390 thou
Johnny Cueto--$390 thou
Jay Bruce--$390 thou

Things to notice...

• Who the hell is responsible for giving Matt Belisle over a million dollars.
• The Reds slashed 55% of their 2008 payroll. About 20% of that will go to Ramon "the most overpaid catcher in baseball" Hernandez in 2009.
• Bobby Livingston, who spent all of 2008 in AAA, made more than Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto and Jay Bruce, and the same as Edinson Volquez.
• Assuming the baby Reds (Edinson, Johnny, Jay, Joey) all grow up to be fantastic, the Reds are going to have a hell of a payday in 2011 when all are eligible for arbitration, and then in 2014 when all are eligible for free agency. If the Reds haven't flirted with the postseason by then, it will be fun to witness the dismantling of a team!
• Matt Belisle is a millionaire. Shit.
• Alex Gonzalez is kkkkkkiiiiiiiillllliiiiiinnnnggggg us.
• Edwin is in arbitration right now and should become a millionaire in the near future, barring the Reds trick him into playing for free, which sadly might happen.
• If you don't understand arbitration, MLB service time, free agency, Super Two players and why Jay Bruce wasn't called up sooner, you MUST read this article.

Scouting Report: Johnny Cueto

If a pitcher posts these numbers (174 IP, 9-14, 4.81 ERA), trade bait comes to mind. But when you're a 22-year-old rookie from the Dominican who averaged 8.18 SOs/9IP with a 96-mph fastball, you're probably safe for the time being. This is Johnny Cueto.

Johnny is one of a few Baby Reds, along with Edinson, Jay, Joey and Brandon, who will be unfairly asked to carry the load in 2009. He models his game after one Pedro Martinez, who is similar in body type, delivery, ethinicity, and who never backs down from a cockfight.

In 2007, Johnny went through the entire minor league gauntlet, earning his second consecutive Reds Minor League Pitcher of the Year award. Thanks to the failings of highly touted prospect Homer Bailey, who has yet to grow his set of testicles, Johnny nailed down a spot at the back end of the rotation with his major league debut performance on April 3, 2008, in a 7-inning, 1 ER, 10 SO performance against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Even though Johnny was brutalized in many following starts, the Reds stuck by him and were rewarded with some solid outings. He is still learning to be a pitcher and he relied too heavily on a fastball that was often placed waist high over the center of the plate. These baseballs often ended up in shrimp boat nets in the Gulf of Mexico, deposited from the Ohio into the Mississippi River.

As Johnny grows into a man and daydreams less and less in between innings about that one time he almost touched a girl's private parts behind the dance hall in San Pedro de Macoris, he will have the potential to become a 1 or 2 starter on a playoff team down the road. This of course will be on the team he is traded to after the Reds can't afford to offer him a major league contract.

STAT WATCH: Johnny will presumably be the fourth starter this year behind Volquez, Harang and Arroyo, which instantly makes him one of the best up-and-coming fourth starters in the bigs, if there is such a category. Steady improvement is what we want from Johnny. An ERA under 4.00 would be a major achievement for a 23-year-old. We also do not want Johnny to contract an STD or wear his arm down in the offseason participating in another sport, beisbol. We also do not want to discover that Johnny falsified his papers and is really 37.

The Best Pitching Seasons of the Past *15 Years (Starters)

Jose Rijo takes the cake with this one. I cheated and stretched the list to 16 years to get him in. In 1993, Jose went nuts on National League batters, posting a 2.48 ERA and 227 SOs in 257 IP. But because Jose only went 14-9, he placed 5th in Cy Young voting behind four 20-game winners (in order, Greg Maddux-ATL, Bill Swift-SF, Tom Glavine-ATL and John Burkett-SF), even though Jose finished 2nd in ERA, 1st in SOs, 1st in SOs/9IP and 1st in games started. This is a dazzling example of the irrelevancy of a pitcher's Win-Loss record. Swift, Glavine and Burkett had excellent years, but they were surrounded by better players. Atlanta won 104. San Fran won 103. Cincinnati won 73. To the victor goes the spoils. Do I sound bitter?

Here are the next best individual seasons for a Reds starting pitcher since 1993...

	Player	Year	GS	IP	ERA	W-L	SO
2	E. Volquez	2008	33	196	3.21	17-6	206
3	B. Arroyo	2006	35	240.7	3.29	14-11	184
4	E.Dessens	2002	30	178	3.03	7-8	93
5	P. Harnisch	1998	32	209	3.14	14-7	157
6	J. Rijo	1994	26	172.3	3.08	9-6	171
7	P. Schourek	1995	29	190.3	3.22	18-7	160
8	A.Harang	2007	34	231.7	3.73	16-6	208
9	A.Harang	2006	36	234.3	3.76	16-11	216
10	P. Harnisch	1999	33	198.3	3.68	16-10	120

Some things to think about...
A.) Edinson's year made it a tad easier to let go of Josh Hamilton.
B.) Bronson can be really, really good, or so, so terrible.
C.) How do you post a 3.03 ERA in 30 games and go 7-8. Oh, I know--because you pitched during the Dark Ages in 2002 when our best offensive season came from Austin Kearns in limited action.
D.) Even in Aaron Harang's good years, he still flirted with a 4.00 ERA.
E.) The Reds have not had good pitching in a long time.