Scouting Report: Alex Gonzalez, Who Does Exist

Offense:
Did you know that Alex Gonzalez has finished with an OPS+ below the league average in all 10 seasons? His best offensive stint occurred in 2007, his first year with the Reds, when he hit .272/.325/.468 with a 99 OPS+ in about two-thirds of a season. This was phenomenal for Alex compared to his career averages (.248/.295/.399 and an 80 OPS+). Because Alex is not a power hitter (106 HRs in 4,002 ABs) there is no reason why he strikes out as often as he does, every 4.9 ABs. Alex seems to have Brandon Phillips syndrome--he swings about three times too hard.

Defense:
Alex has more range than No Country For Old Men. If it's hit between second and third you can bet your bippy Alex is going to at least attempt to make a play. This might be why his career fielding percentage is under the league average for shortstops--he doesn't know when to eat it. If Alex backhands a Juan Pierre grounder deep in the hole and Juan has already crossed first base, there's a good chance Alex will still throw the ball. And there's a good chance that ball will go over Joey Votto's head and five runners will score because Bronson Arroyo is pitching and only Bronson Arroyo can have an inning that bad.

Overall:
There's no denying Alex's sexiness. When he successfully makes that play in the hole against Juan Pierre, there is not much else to do but fall out of your chair with the giggles. And when he follows that next inning with a solo shot into the left field bleachers, there is not much else to do but die. But like with any sexy person, it's easy to get caught up in the image. Numbers don't lie.

STAT WATCH: Alex needs to stop swinging and missing. 4.9 ABs/SO is not good for a Punch-and-Judy hitter. If he can cut it to 7 ABs/SO we will observe a pleasant rise in his offensive numbers. It will be hard to watch a .250-hitting Alex get the nod ahead of Jeff Keppinger, who will hit at least .300 if healthy. If Alex can hit .285, which he's never done, I'll be happy. This is another way of saying I probably won't be happy. In this blogger's humble opinion, shortstop should be Keppinger's to lose.

Scouting Report: Joey "I Challenge You to Say Something Bad About Me" Votto

Offense:
The following sentence shouldn't be a surprising. Within three years, Joey Votto will be considered one of the best hitters in the National League. Votto finished second in 2008 ROY voting behind Geovany Soto of the Cubs. He batted .297/.368/.506 in 526 ABs and had a season eerily similar to 24-year-old Todd Helton, who also finished second in ROY voting, behind Kerry Wood of those damned Cubs. There really isn't anything bad to say about Joey, who often wonders how your mother is doing. Joey has a presence in the batter's box. He looks like a hitter. Even when he strikes out, damn, it looks so sugar sweet. He hit 3 home runs in one game off three different Cubs pitchers, which begs the question why he didn't do that home run thing more often last year.

Defense:
Joey, who is never sure if you're talking to him, had some minor issues with the glove in 2008 but owns a career .992 fielding percentage, which is the NL average for first basemen. And considering Joey was fielding throws from Edwin, Kepp and Jerry Jr. all year, the number is even more remarkable.

Overall:
Joey, who always leaves early because he has a thing, is and will be the Red meat for many years to come, or until he's eligible for free agency in five years. That still gives him ample time to grow into a perennial All-Star, but for that to happen, Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman will first have to die off. Oh, and Prince Fielder too (and that's just the NL Central). Joey is part of a cluster of Canadians in the bigs, along with Jason Bay and Justin Morneau, who he should grow to resemble in numbers and demeanor, which is really, really exciting.

STAT WATCH: It's up to the other Reds if they win or not this year because Joey is going to put up very good numbers. He will lead the team in HRs, RBIs, meatball eating, OBP, SLG, and maybe even BA. This is not so much a prediction as it is a guarantee, unless Jay or Edwin busts through the ceiling, which I would be completely for also.

Scouting Report: The Great American Ball Player

Offense:
In the first 12 games (46 ABs) of Jay's career, he batted .457/.554/.739 and was hastily elected into the Reds Hall of Fame--and why not, with his natural, smooth swing and the clean cut boyishness. Can't you hear all those guys you work with getting in your face about it. "They should have brought him up sooner, man. I told you. I knew it. I should be frickin GM." In the 96 games that followed, when Jay hit .229/.280/.417, eerily matching Corey Patterson's career numbers, those same guys you work with covered quickly and easily. "Man, you gotta give him more time to develop. He's so frickin young, which reminds me, you know who sucks--Corey Patterson."

Defense:
Bruce can play all three outfield positions but his range and arm are best suited for right field. Because Bruce is so young, he still gets angry when Coach Baker puts him in the outfield instead of pitcher or shortstop.

Overall:
Jay was the fifth youngest player in the NL last year, born in April 1987. This gives Jay a great excuse when he plays bad--it's like Edwin Encarnacion times 1,000. But if there's one thing we are taught when we are young , it's never to trust a person with two first names. I am slightly weary of Jay, not just because of the name thing, but mostly due to his resemblance of Austin Kearns. Austin was a 7th overall pick, Jay a 12th. Austin broke into the lineup at age 22, one year older than Jay. In Austin's first 13 games (37 ABs) he hit .432/.553/.676, but went on to finish the year with much better numbers than Jay did. They both have sweet swings. They are both above-average defenders. They were both marketed to shit by the Reds front office and the guys you work with before they ever played a game. They are both white and could fly away with their ears. The list goes on.

STAT WATCH: Sadly for Jay, he is expected to lead the Reds offensive calvary into battle this year. Most fans are absolutely sure Jay is a can't-miss future All-Star, but a few of us aren't sure if he can even be the next Austin Kearns. Did I mention in 413 ABs in his rookie year, he walked 33 times and whiffed 110. I know, I know, he'll get better. In order for the Reds to finish above .500, The Great American Ball Player needs to grow up fast and hit .310/.400/.550. This is a tall order. Realistically, Jay is going to hit .275/.345/.490, which still isn't bad for any 22-year-old not named Jay Bruce. Just to be clear--I'm pulling for Jay, I really am. I want him to be the next Josh Hamilton minus the smack and hookers.

Scouting Report: Edwin Encarnacion

Offense:
Edwin is an enigma. For a string of weeks, the baseball will appear the size of a watermelon to Edwin and he will scatter its seeds all over the field. Other weeks, the baseball will appear the size of a watermelon seed. Sometimes, when Edwin is really lost and swinging before the pitcher has let go of the ball, he is sent down to Triple AAA and the ball becomes the size of a watermelon again. He returns to the majors and proceeds to hit watermelons for some time until the next drought. Realistically, Edwin should probably think about switching to seedless watermelons, thus avoiding any confusion.

Defense:

Edwin is an enigma. He will botch the most routine ground ball, then on the following play, he will display jungle cat reflexes to pick a scorcher down the left field line. He will gun down Juan Pierre by a half-step from his butt and airmail Joey Votto with the pitcher half-trotting to first. His favorite pastime is grimacing. Edwin has one of the lowest career fielding percentages (.935) among active NL third basemen, although the difference between a Gold Glove and being the worst defensive third basement in the league is about 3 muffs per 100 attempts. Tis a cruel game!

Overall:
Edwin is an enigma. Some Reds fans have grown tired of his inconsistency and are done waiting for Edwin to hit watermelons daily. Others value his youth--he is only eight months older than Joey Votto. Edwin has the potential to be in the top tier of third basemen in the National League, but he also has the potential to become a 34-year-old reserve second baseman for the Kansas City Royals, if that frachise is still around in eight years. Right now, Edwin is in the top half of third basemen in the NL. Really, he is. Check out The Best Hitters in the NL Central post below this.

STAT WATCH: It's now or never for Edwin. He's played the equivalent of three full seasons. He should be figuring this thing out by now. We need big things from Edwin this year. He needs to be a reliable right-handed bat in a lineup of lefties. He needs to hit .290/.350/.480.

Scouting Report: Jeff Keppinger

Offense:

No matter how hard you try, you will probably not strikeout Jeff Keppinger, who led the National League with 19.1 ABs/SO. That is certainly tidy. Just ask Adam Dunn, sloppy bastard, who averaged 3.15 ABs/SO. There is no secret to what Jeff does. He simply puts the bat on the ball. He is a prototypical 2-hitter. He is so, so good at advancing runners and hitting the ball where it's pitched. He has the special talent of picking a spot in the infield and hitting the ball there. That is harder than it looks. He had a tremendous 2007 in part-time action (123 OPS+), but then took a major dunk in his pants in 2008 (70 OPS+).

Defense:

Ignoring Jeff's resemblance to Elmer Fudd in body type and height of hat, he surpassed expectations as a shortstop even though he is not fluid or graceful, doesn't have a strong arm, and is white. Simply put, Jeff is fundamental, which I believe is still considered a compliment.

Overall:

Wherever Jeff goes, a starting infielder has a horrific injury and Jeff steps in. Did you hear that Edwin?--You could be next. After Jeff stamped his major league ticket in 2007 with a team saving performance, he got a taste of his own, fracturing his patella 147 ABs into 2008. Up until then, he was batting .320/.365/.442, similar to his excellent 2007 line. In the 311 ABs after his return, however, he hit .238/.281/.299 - a brutal first-hand account of what happens when, God forbid, you fracture a patella. Jeff is fully rehealed from his injury, but then again, so is Alex Gonzalez, who apparently is real. In order to get some ABs this year, Jeff might have to learn how to play left field, or wait for Edwin to "fall" down the dugout steps.

STAT WATCH: If Keppinger is healthy and in the line-up, he will hit, I think. Most other Reds fans think so too, they think. Most would give Jeff the starting job to lose at shortstop, but unfortunately, Alex Gonzalez, who I hear does actually exist in our world, will be handed the job without question. This is sad for Jeff, but if Gonzalez has forgotten how to play the game, this is good for Jeff. Bat over .300 Jeff.

Scouting Report: Johnny Cueto

If a pitcher posts these numbers (174 IP, 9-14, 4.81 ERA), trade bait comes to mind. But when you're a 22-year-old rookie from the Dominican who averaged 8.18 SOs/9IP with a 96-mph fastball, you're probably safe for the time being. This is Johnny Cueto.

Johnny is one of a few Baby Reds, along with Edinson, Jay, Joey and Brandon, who will be unfairly asked to carry the load in 2009. He models his game after one Pedro Martinez, who is similar in body type, delivery, ethinicity, and who never backs down from a cockfight.

In 2007, Johnny went through the entire minor league gauntlet, earning his second consecutive Reds Minor League Pitcher of the Year award. Thanks to the failings of highly touted prospect Homer Bailey, who has yet to grow his set of testicles, Johnny nailed down a spot at the back end of the rotation with his major league debut performance on April 3, 2008, in a 7-inning, 1 ER, 10 SO performance against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Even though Johnny was brutalized in many following starts, the Reds stuck by him and were rewarded with some solid outings. He is still learning to be a pitcher and he relied too heavily on a fastball that was often placed waist high over the center of the plate. These baseballs often ended up in shrimp boat nets in the Gulf of Mexico, deposited from the Ohio into the Mississippi River.

As Johnny grows into a man and daydreams less and less in between innings about that one time he almost touched a girl's private parts behind the dance hall in San Pedro de Macoris, he will have the potential to become a 1 or 2 starter on a playoff team down the road. This of course will be on the team he is traded to after the Reds can't afford to offer him a major league contract.

STAT WATCH: Johnny will presumably be the fourth starter this year behind Volquez, Harang and Arroyo, which instantly makes him one of the best up-and-coming fourth starters in the bigs, if there is such a category. Steady improvement is what we want from Johnny. An ERA under 4.00 would be a major achievement for a 23-year-old. We also do not want Johnny to contract an STD or wear his arm down in the offseason participating in another sport, beisbol. We also do not want to discover that Johnny falsified his papers and is really 37.

Scouting Report: Chris Dickerson

Offense
C-Dicks had an enchanted 2008. Called up during the dog days of summer with half of the Reds either injured or too demoralized to play, Dickerson put on his big-boy pants and came to work. In a cup of coffee (106 AB), he batted .304/.413/.618!!! Those numbers are almost as good as Albert Pujols' lifetime line. But let's not get too excited. In five minor league seasons, young Dickerson was a .260/.360/.415 hitter. This isn't too terrible when we consider the 100 point difference between his BA and OBP, which means Chris is patient at the plate and draws walks. This is hard to teach many young hitters but Chris seems to understand the strike zone, thus, he has the proper foundation to be a professional hitter. He will, however, have to cut down on the strikeouts (the main source of his low BA).

Defense
He's an agile, quick outfielder. Aren't they all?

Overall
Dickerson is an all-around athlete with 30 SB potential. It will take time for him to fully develop his game and it's doubtful he will finish next season with numbers remotely close to what he did in 2008, that is, if he even stays in the majors. He hasn't experienced a Major slump yet (inevitable) and when it happens, it will be very, very ugly. But let's hope the Reds give him at least half a year to prove himself. We'll see if Dickerson is a real power hitter. Something tells me not really, but then again, I've learned to be a pessimist as a Reds fan. He's 27 years old. It's time young Dickerson. Oh, and he seems to be a really good guy. Thanks to Matt F. for the link.

STAT WATCH: Rarely does a major leaguer drastically improve upon his minor league numbers. Because the Reds have yet to sign a legit starting left fielder, Chris might see a starting position there depending on how he performs this spring. Another scenario might pit Chris platooning in left with Jerry Hairston Jr., creating a unique individual player named Chrissy Dickston III. Dickerson has that magic nine-letter word: P-O-T-E-N-T-I-A-L. Then again, so does Homer Bailey. Chris, we have no idea what to expect from you. Just do good.

Scouting Report: Jerry Hairston Jr.

Offense
Jerry Hairston Jr. has played ten platoon/utility-filled seasons. Jerry Hairston Jr. has had one really good platoon/utility-filled season. That was last year—enough for the Reds to resign him recently to a one-year contract worth $2 million. Hairston is a career .260/.330/.370 hitter, even more depressing when considering he might have been juiced: see Mitchell Report, page 78,789. Jerry Jr. had an unusual 2008. He was knocked unconscious during spring training. When he awoke months after the season, he was surprised to learn he had batted 261 times with great success (.326/.384/.487).

Defense
Jerry Jr. played six positions for the Reds last year (SS, LF, CF, RF, 2B and 3B, in order of starts by position). He served admirably at shortstop with Alex Gonzalez and Jeff Keppinger both sidelined by injuries.

Overall
Jerry has tenacity and he appears to be a bit of an angry fellow. This is probably because he has been competing for a starting Major League job for 11 seasons. Every game last year, when the FSN camerman zoomed in on Jerry's face, his expression resembled a lion who's prey had been overtaken by a herd of hyenas. But maybe it is this drive, this willingness, that will push Jerry towards an everyday role with the Reds in the future. It is also of note that Jerry reportedly converted to the Jehovah's Witness faith in 2000, but rest assured, he has vowed not to knock on Saturday mornings. Did I mention he was an angry fellow.

STAT WATCH: Depending on what the Reds do with their left field vacancy, and depending on the health of Gonzalez and Keppinger, and depending on the health of himself, Jerry might or might not play a lot this year. If he does play on a regular basis, we need Jerry 2008. If Jerry becomes our permanent left fielder (sweet jesus), he's gonna have to hit, hit, hit. If he becomes our permanent shortstop, he's gonna have to hit, field, hit, hit. Jerry, you're a sparkplug. We need you standing on a base 36% of the time. Eat the meat. Attack the hyena herd.

Scouting Report: Little Norris Hopper

Offense
Little Norris was sidelined most of 2008 and eventually bowed out for reconstructive elbow surgery. This was unfortunate for Little Norris, who made his mark in 2007 batting .329 in 307 AB. Almost 40% of his hits never reached that vast expanse of green that is the outfield (20 bunts and 17 infield hits), but as far as swinging and making terrible contact to the point where the ball ricochets off the extreme bottom or nub of the bat then squirts down the foul line and rolls to a stop in no man's land between home, third and the mound, Norris was an assassin. What we love about Little Norris is that he carries himself with a dignified aire that says, "I meant to do that." No one will ever know but Norry.

Defense
Because Little Norris is so tiny, three Norry steps is the equivalent of one Jay Bruce step. Even with this handicap, Little Norris zips around the outfield with relative ease, covering good ground. He is not an alley-stalker or wall-climber, but he will attempt to "go get it"--that is, when he is not collecting nuts and storing food for the winter.

Overall
Little Norris is a valuable bench player. He brings good speed, can fill in at all three outfield positions and has solid sacrificing ability. He is the only Reds player who can properly execute what is known as a bunt. When Norris performed this trick for the first time, all the Reds rose to the top of the dugout. "What the hell just happened," cried Edwin Encarnacion. "Will Norris be okay?"

STAT WATCH: We won't ask Little Norris for much in 2009, mostly because we shouldn't have to, but when June rolls around and Willy Taveras is batting .230, we might begin to see more of him, although that decision would be too easy, right Dusty?

Scouting Report: Brandon Phillips

Offense

It's amazing how often Phillips smiled for having such a sucky 2008 (.261 BA, .312 OBP, .442 SLG), a disappointing drop-off from a breakthrough 2007 (.288 BA, .331 OBP, .485 SLG). Brandon swings so hard that when he misses he spins around twice. Contact, Brandon. Contact.

Defense

A much-deserved Gold-Glove.

Overall

Because Brandon plays for the Reds, he is one of our best players. If he were on another team, he would be one of their better players. Of the seven everyday second basemen in the 2008 National League (3.1 Plate Appearances per game average qualifies as everyday according to ESPN), Brandon had the 5th best production behind Chase "God" Utley, Dan Uggla, Mark DeRosa and Kelly Johnson (that's right), and we're not counting Kaz Matsui, Orlando Hudson, Mike Fontenot (really?) and Ray "I will never retire" Durham, all of whom outhit Brandon in their incomplete seasons. Even in Brandon's breakthrough 2007, there were other NL second basemen who churned out stronger and more effecient numbers--God Utley, Jeff Kent, Hudson and that pesky Kelly Johnson. But Brandon gets bonus points for his speed (84 of 111 Stolen Bases in 3 years), his official Gold Glove status and his youth (he turns 28 in June).

STAT WATCH: If Brandon wants automatic consideration as a Top 5 NL second baseman (a status which most Reds fans have erroneously given him) he needs to start hitting for average and getting on base. He will never be Chase Utley, who can do anything he wants, and he isn't a true beefcake like Dan Uggla or Jeff Kent. He needs to study Orlando Hudson and Kelly Johnson, who effeciently set the table for the meat-eaters. Dusty should bat Brandon 2nd, never in the middle. Brandon, if you hit .290 with a .345 OBP, then good things will come to the Reds.

Scouting Report: Where do you start with Bronson Arroyo?

Here?


Or here?


Covering the Goo Goo Dolls?


Okay, this one is actually kinda funny...

Here is what we know...

He has flowing blonde locks that are occasionally altered into cornrows. Proceed with caution.

He is a certified man-whore.

He plays guitar and sings in the Bronson Arroyo Band. They cover Goo Goo Dolls, Matchbox 20, Staind and Oasis. Check out his myspace, seriously. And here's the other one.

Oh, and I almost forgot, he plays baseball.

In 2008, Bronson's 4.77 ERA was his highest ever for a full season (this would be considered a fantastic year for Matt Belisle). Even so, he still finished with a 15-11 record (his highest Win total with the Reds), which goes to show you that Wins and Losses are, for the most part, irrelevant. Now, I'm not a big proponent of making excuses or saying, "If you take out a few bad games here or there, he would have had a better year." Well, in Bronson's case, he would really love to have appoximately 6 innings erased from the 2008 season.

Date	IP	H	ER	Locker Room Tears
April 23, HOU	3.2	10	8	573
May 4, @ATL	1.1	7	7	887
Jun 24, @TOR	1	11	10	9,999
TOTAL	6	28	25	11,459

These are some severe outings, folks. That looks like the box score to a Sega RBI Baseball game. Jesus Christ Dusty, don't you know when it's time to pull the frickin cord (I don't know, maybe after 6 hits, 5 runs and 1 out). It wouldn't surprise me if Bronson's evil twin brother, Braxton, tied him up and took the mound. That blasted Braxton! If Bronson would have stopped him, thus preventing an additional 25 Earned Runs in 6 bloody innings, he would have finished with a respectable 3.76 ERA on the season (in your dreams Matt Belisle).

STAT WATCH: Bronson, since becoming a full-time starter in 2004, you've sported a 4.14 ERA. For the Reds to be successful, you need to at least keep it below 4.00 bro. Remember when you were an All-Star in 2006 and had a 3.29 ERA? Do that again.