Spring Training, when will you end?

Edinson "getting the rust off"

This is the first year I've followed Reds Spring Training pitch by pitch. Let's just say I want to stab my eyes out with a spork. A person can only take so much speculation. Only 25 more days of torture! I think most fans grow more excited as the preseason trods along, but I find myself wanting to hurt my live-in girlfriend for no reason when I watch players like Richar, Rosales and Barker fart around the field playing dress up like a Red for a day. Oh and I almost forgot about Houston players Newhan, Sutton, Palmisano, Bogusevic and Mansella. I watched them play too--what thrills!

The speculation! The Spring Training cliches! I don't know if I can take it anymore. The highlight of today's game for me was when the Houston Astros radio announcer listed our starting defense, including Dennis Hopper in center field. It made me so happy at the moment, and now, thinking back on it, it is really sad how happy I was.

At least the World Baseball Classic has provided some diamond drama. You have to love how Joey Votto, playing for Canada, stroked a homer against America's best, Jake Peavy. And you have to be happy for Adam Dunn, who is carrying the load for the United States in the cleanup spot and getting oodles of praise from analysts. Son of a biscuit, he has looked good on the big stage, as close as he'll ever get to a playoff scenario (gypsy tears).

Throw out the statistics in Spring Training

They are practically useless for many reasons listed below. (I'll be borrowing here from a well-written Kansas City Royals blog article. Who knew someone associated with the Royals could produce something so beautiful. JK NYRoyal.)

1. The sample size is shrimpy. Nothing can be proven for a hitter in less than 40 ABs, which is what most fringe batters will get, and in the same way, for fringe starting pitchers who might get 15-20 IP, and relievers who might get 5-10 IP, if they're lucky.

2. The scrubs come out to play. Who are all of these people? I'm pretty sure one guy's name was Humpty McDougal.

3. Unreal play. Veterans usually set their motors on coast and pitchers tinker around with different pitches. Other players who are locks are just saving themselves and avoiding injury. When I pitched in high school (here we go), I remember fooling around with different grips and motions in the preseason because I could, and cause it was kind of fun.

4. Cactus League air factor. The ball carries well in Arizona, or so I hear.

I know that Spring Training has its benefits, but preseason stats should never be used to judge a player. The coaching staff could give a rat's Belisle about stats. They are looking at the nuances of development in younger players: the added velocity on a fastball, the refined location, the shortened swing, the improved eye, the use of the whole field, the jump on the stolen base, and other intangibles. In veterans, Spring Training is mostly a pulse checker: can he still get the bat off his shoulders? Can he still judge a fly ball? It's very similar to an auto emission's test. More than likely, you're gonna pass.

Here are some deceiving Spring Trainings from last year's team...

Joey Votto--38 ABs, .158 BA, .263 SLG (result: best all-around hitter on the team)
Corey Patterson--22 ABs, .455 BA, .545 SLG (result: you would have done better than Corey)
Drew Anderson--33 ABs, .394 BA, .485 SLG (result: no soup for you)
Andy Green--28 ABs, .357 BA, .786 SLG (result: he bagged your groceries last night)

Spring Training cliches
I listened to a broadcast recently (I forget which one. They all blend together.) where the announcer described a player's timing as being out of sorts after the player was late on a fastball and early on a changeup. "He's just getting the rust off," the announcer said. In the player's next AB, he smoked a 450 ft. homer. The announced said, "He's really zeroed in this spring." This is a microcosm of what Spring Training means to me.

Some past Reds Spring Training records

2008 17-15

2007 18-12

2006 22-11

2005 17-15

2004 17-16

Spring Training is Here (Take Your Shirt Off and Wave it Around Your Head Like a Helicopter edition)

1. After a 7-0 hosing of the AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays, I was highly entertained reading the Reds message boards on Reds.com and Cincinnati.com. After nine innings of Spring Training baseball, all those preseason predictions were reaffirmed. In short, we're going to the World Series!!!

One of my favorites from Reds.com...
"I was encouraged over one key stat on offense too. Only 5 strikeouts!!!!!!!!!!!! Again, I know this is only one game, but we have players who can make contact now, instead of swinging for the fences and missing most of the time! I hope too that this new trend continues! I'm looking forward to this year's ball club! I think we will be a lot of fun and will even surprise some Reds fans!"

Nine innings of a Spring Training game, and what do you know, SMALL BALL has arrived. And considering that 6 of our 7 runs came on homers, it's fairly clear this guy has a red Kool-aid mustache and no baseball friends. If the Reds would have lost today and struck out 13 times, the quote would have gone...
"It's okay that we struck out a lot today. It's only the first game of Spring Training. Everyone is going to be a little rusty. Oh, and also, if anybody on the message board wants to meet for lunch at LaRosa's tomorrow, call me 1-800-IMAKEPOOROBSERVATIONS."

2. You will not find recycled game recaps from Spring Training on The Red Scare. You will also not find microanalyzation of Spring Training box scores either as to the tune of the following example...

"Holy Smokes, Homer Bailey sure threw well today, retiring the side in the seventh. Insert speculative sentence that starts with, "I know this was only one game but..." Insert speculative sentence about how the Reds might use Homer out of the bullpen to start the season. Insert speculative sentence about how Homer has more to prove than anyone this spring. Insert speculative sentence questioning where Homer will start the year. Insert speculative sentence about you're own speculation. Finish paragraph with a sentence that ends, "...but that depends on what Dusty does."

I think that Spring Training speculation is tiresome and repititious. In short, I think roster spots are generally predetermined. If Homer Bailey throws 18 innings of shutout ball in Spring Training, I still don't care. If Brandon Phillips goes 0-56 in Spring Training, he will still start on Opening Day. If Laynce Nix goes 23-56 in Spring Training, he might not make the team.

3. Batting Brandon Phillips cleanup is quite possibly the most absurd thing I've ever heard, almost as baffling as when they batted Adam Dunn second. With a slew of left-handed power hitters over the last five years, the Reds have become obsessed with seperating the lefties and batting an alternate left-right-left-right order. Lineup construction these days is very similar to a children's game of follow the pattern. This is what the batting order should be, ignoring a million other scenarios-

1. Taveras
2. Dickerson/Hairston
3. Bruce
4. Votto
5. Phillips
6. Encarnacion
7. Gonzalez
8. Hernandez
9. Pitcher

My lineup puts three lefties in a row (Dickerson, Bruce, Votto), a mortal sin. But here's what makes it okay. Joey Votto is a .289 career hitter against lefties. He hits them almost as effectively as he hits righties. Votto is nearly a better hitter against his own side than the right-handed Brandon Phillips (career .294 BA against LHP). This makes the lefty-righty pattern obsolete. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. This is clear. There is no justification. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. If you think Brandon makes a good cleanup hitter, stop watching baseball.

Ranks: NL Central First Basemen

1. The Destroyer of All Things Spherical, 29--STL
2. Lance Berkman, 33--HOU
3. Prince Fielder, 25--MIL
4. Joey Votto, 25--CIN
5. Derrek Lee, 33--CHI
6. Adam LaRoche, 29--PIT

If you're a Reds fan, this list is rather depressing. The NL Central has a stranglehold on the rest of baseball with first base talent. Joey Votto really gets shafted here, and I was generous not to put Derrek Lee ahead of him as many others would.

There is no easier rank in baseball than placing Albert Pujols 1st on this list. Abolutely terrifying is the fact that Albert is coming off his best season (.357/.462/.653). He eats Lance Berkman's for breakfast, and Lance Berkman is amazing, a steady lock in the two spot. Did you know that Lance stole 18 bases last year and was only caught 4 times? That's 14 true stolen bases for someone with the nicknames Big Puma and Fat Elvis. Brandon Phillips only had 13 true stolen bases last year. Ouchies! If Lance can do it, so can you Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion and Alex Gonzalez.

Prince Fielder is 3rd, even though Joey's rookie numbers matched Prince's last year. They are the same age, but Prince has a 50 HR season under his double-sized belt. Derrek Lee, 5th on this list, was one of the more underrated players in the game until he went nuts in 2005 (.335/.418/.662). While he hasn't matched that production since, he is getting more recognition now, as his numbers begin to sag. Even Adam LaRoche, the last man on the list, has a career 114 OPS+. Damn Gina!

Joey Votto is not a defensive rock like Pujols or Lee, but he will get great practice as long as Edwin mans the hot corner. Joey might only be the 4th best first basemen in the NL Central, but he's probably 6th-8th in the NL right now--and he's just getting started. Joey will never put up Albert numbers and it would be unfair to expect Berkman numbers, but we can expect him to outperform Fielder and Lee this year. After all, he is our big bat.

Scouting Report: Alex Gonzalez, Who Does Exist

Offense:
Did you know that Alex Gonzalez has finished with an OPS+ below the league average in all 10 seasons? His best offensive stint occurred in 2007, his first year with the Reds, when he hit .272/.325/.468 with a 99 OPS+ in about two-thirds of a season. This was phenomenal for Alex compared to his career averages (.248/.295/.399 and an 80 OPS+). Because Alex is not a power hitter (106 HRs in 4,002 ABs) there is no reason why he strikes out as often as he does, every 4.9 ABs. Alex seems to have Brandon Phillips syndrome--he swings about three times too hard.

Defense:
Alex has more range than No Country For Old Men. If it's hit between second and third you can bet your bippy Alex is going to at least attempt to make a play. This might be why his career fielding percentage is under the league average for shortstops--he doesn't know when to eat it. If Alex backhands a Juan Pierre grounder deep in the hole and Juan has already crossed first base, there's a good chance Alex will still throw the ball. And there's a good chance that ball will go over Joey Votto's head and five runners will score because Bronson Arroyo is pitching and only Bronson Arroyo can have an inning that bad.

Overall:
There's no denying Alex's sexiness. When he successfully makes that play in the hole against Juan Pierre, there is not much else to do but fall out of your chair with the giggles. And when he follows that next inning with a solo shot into the left field bleachers, there is not much else to do but die. But like with any sexy person, it's easy to get caught up in the image. Numbers don't lie.

STAT WATCH: Alex needs to stop swinging and missing. 4.9 ABs/SO is not good for a Punch-and-Judy hitter. If he can cut it to 7 ABs/SO we will observe a pleasant rise in his offensive numbers. It will be hard to watch a .250-hitting Alex get the nod ahead of Jeff Keppinger, who will hit at least .300 if healthy. If Alex can hit .285, which he's never done, I'll be happy. This is another way of saying I probably won't be happy. In this blogger's humble opinion, shortstop should be Keppinger's to lose.

Scouting Report: Joey "I Challenge You to Say Something Bad About Me" Votto

Offense:
The following sentence shouldn't be a surprising. Within three years, Joey Votto will be considered one of the best hitters in the National League. Votto finished second in 2008 ROY voting behind Geovany Soto of the Cubs. He batted .297/.368/.506 in 526 ABs and had a season eerily similar to 24-year-old Todd Helton, who also finished second in ROY voting, behind Kerry Wood of those damned Cubs. There really isn't anything bad to say about Joey, who often wonders how your mother is doing. Joey has a presence in the batter's box. He looks like a hitter. Even when he strikes out, damn, it looks so sugar sweet. He hit 3 home runs in one game off three different Cubs pitchers, which begs the question why he didn't do that home run thing more often last year.

Defense:
Joey, who is never sure if you're talking to him, had some minor issues with the glove in 2008 but owns a career .992 fielding percentage, which is the NL average for first basemen. And considering Joey was fielding throws from Edwin, Kepp and Jerry Jr. all year, the number is even more remarkable.

Overall:
Joey, who always leaves early because he has a thing, is and will be the Red meat for many years to come, or until he's eligible for free agency in five years. That still gives him ample time to grow into a perennial All-Star, but for that to happen, Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman will first have to die off. Oh, and Prince Fielder too (and that's just the NL Central). Joey is part of a cluster of Canadians in the bigs, along with Jason Bay and Justin Morneau, who he should grow to resemble in numbers and demeanor, which is really, really exciting.

STAT WATCH: It's up to the other Reds if they win or not this year because Joey is going to put up very good numbers. He will lead the team in HRs, RBIs, meatball eating, OBP, SLG, and maybe even BA. This is not so much a prediction as it is a guarantee, unless Jay or Edwin busts through the ceiling, which I would be completely for also.

Where Does the Money Go?

At the end of MLB fiscal year 2008, the Reds ranked 18th in payroll just above $74 million, fifth among NL Central teams. Here is how they spent the money (numbers rounded).

Adam Dunn--$13 mil
Francisco Cordero--$8.6 mil
Ken Griffey Jr.--$8.3 mil
Aaron Harang--$6.75 mil
Alex Gonzalez--$4.6 mil
Bronson Arroyo--$4.6 mil
David Weathers--$3.3 mil
Mike Stanton--$3 mil
Ryan Freel--$3 mil
Jeremy Affeldt--$3 mil
Brandon Phillips--$2.94 mil
David Ross--$2.53 mil
Scott Hatteberg--$1.85 mil
Josh Fogg--$1.5 mil
Javier Valentin--$1.35 mil
Matt Belisle--$1.25 mil
Juan Castro--$975 thou
Todd Coffee--$907 thou
Mike Lincoln--$550 thou
Edwin Encarnacion--$450 thou
Norris Hopper--$402 thou
Jeff Keppinger--$402 thou
Jared Burton--$395 thou
Edinson Volquez--$392 thou
Bobby Livingston--$392 thou

and those poor league minimum bastards...
Joey Votto--$390 thou
Johnny Cueto--$390 thou
Jay Bruce--$390 thou

Things to notice...

• Who the hell is responsible for giving Matt Belisle over a million dollars.
• The Reds slashed 55% of their 2008 payroll. About 20% of that will go to Ramon "the most overpaid catcher in baseball" Hernandez in 2009.
• Bobby Livingston, who spent all of 2008 in AAA, made more than Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto and Jay Bruce, and the same as Edinson Volquez.
• Assuming the baby Reds (Edinson, Johnny, Jay, Joey) all grow up to be fantastic, the Reds are going to have a hell of a payday in 2011 when all are eligible for arbitration, and then in 2014 when all are eligible for free agency. If the Reds haven't flirted with the postseason by then, it will be fun to witness the dismantling of a team!
• Matt Belisle is a millionaire. Shit.
• Alex Gonzalez is kkkkkkiiiiiiiillllliiiiiinnnnggggg us.
• Edwin is in arbitration right now and should become a millionaire in the near future, barring the Reds trick him into playing for free, which sadly might happen.
• If you don't understand arbitration, MLB service time, free agency, Super Two players and why Jay Bruce wasn't called up sooner, you MUST read this article.

Scouting Report: Edwin Encarnacion

Offense:
Edwin is an enigma. For a string of weeks, the baseball will appear the size of a watermelon to Edwin and he will scatter its seeds all over the field. Other weeks, the baseball will appear the size of a watermelon seed. Sometimes, when Edwin is really lost and swinging before the pitcher has let go of the ball, he is sent down to Triple AAA and the ball becomes the size of a watermelon again. He returns to the majors and proceeds to hit watermelons for some time until the next drought. Realistically, Edwin should probably think about switching to seedless watermelons, thus avoiding any confusion.

Defense:

Edwin is an enigma. He will botch the most routine ground ball, then on the following play, he will display jungle cat reflexes to pick a scorcher down the left field line. He will gun down Juan Pierre by a half-step from his butt and airmail Joey Votto with the pitcher half-trotting to first. His favorite pastime is grimacing. Edwin has one of the lowest career fielding percentages (.935) among active NL third basemen, although the difference between a Gold Glove and being the worst defensive third basement in the league is about 3 muffs per 100 attempts. Tis a cruel game!

Overall:
Edwin is an enigma. Some Reds fans have grown tired of his inconsistency and are done waiting for Edwin to hit watermelons daily. Others value his youth--he is only eight months older than Joey Votto. Edwin has the potential to be in the top tier of third basemen in the National League, but he also has the potential to become a 34-year-old reserve second baseman for the Kansas City Royals, if that frachise is still around in eight years. Right now, Edwin is in the top half of third basemen in the NL. Really, he is. Check out The Best Hitters in the NL Central post below this.

STAT WATCH: It's now or never for Edwin. He's played the equivalent of three full seasons. He should be figuring this thing out by now. We need big things from Edwin this year. He needs to be a reliable right-handed bat in a lineup of lefties. He needs to hit .290/.350/.480.

The Best Hitters in the NL Central

One of the best ways to measure a hitter is adjusted OPS, or OPS+. If you already know what OPS+ is, I am sorry, bear with me. If not, you should pay attention. While standard OPS is simply on-base percentage plus slugging percentage (OBP + SLG), adjusted OPS is a complicated formula that takes into consideration ballpark factor (sorry Vinny Castilla) and league averages for OBP and SLG in that players league. The resulting number is the rate above the league average expressed as a percentage. All you really need to know is 100 always represents the league average. The higher above 100, the better. The farther under 100, the worse. For example, let's take Albert Pujols in 2008 when he finished with an astronomical 190 OPS+. Albert was damn near close to being twice as productive as the average major league hitter. The only player with a career OPS+ over 200 is Babe Ruth (207). Albert is tied for seventh in career OPS+ (170).

Here are the highest OPS+ seasons for the NL Central in 2007 and 2008 including everyone over 100 with at least a 400 AB season (sorry Jerry Hairston Jr.).

	2008				2007
1	A. Pujols	190		1	A. Pujols	157
2	L. Berkman	159		2	P. Fielder	156
3	R. Ludwick	150		3	R. Braun	153
4	C. Lee	144		4	A. Dunn	136
5	T. Glaus	131		T5	L. Berkman	131
6	A. Dunn	129		T5	D. Lee	131
T7	A. Ramirez	128		7	H. Pence	130
T7	P. Fielder	128		8	A. Ramirez	129
T7	R. Braun	128		T9	C. Hart	126
T7	R. Doumit	128		T9	C. Lee	126
11	N. McLouth	126		11	A. Soriano	123
12	J. Votto	124		12	K. Griffey Jr	119
13	A. LaRoche	123		T13	R. Weeks	108
14	A. Soriano	121		T13	A. LaRoche	108
15	G. Soto	120		15	X. Nady	107
16	R. Ankiel	119		T16	B. Phillips	105
17	M. DeRosa	118		T16	J. Wilson	105
18	J. Hardy	113		18	F. Sanchez	103
T19	M. Cameron	110		19	M. DeRosa	102
T19	D. Lee	110		20	E. Encarnac…	101
T21	E. Encarnac…	106		21	G. Jenkins	101
T21	K. Matsui	106		22	J. Hardy	100
23	H. Pence	105
24	S. Schumach..	102
25	K. Griffey Jr.	101

Some things that come to mind...

• Albert Pujols is a destroyer of all things spherical.
• Is Ryan Ludwick really that good?
• Adam Dunn was one of the Top 5 most productive hitters in the NL Central.
• Joey Votto had a very good rookie year and should only get better.
• Brandon Phillips finished with a rather low OPS+ for his breakthrough year, lower than Rickie Weeks and tied with Jack Wilson, who resembles Nosferatu.
• Well I'll be a monkey's ass, is that Edwin Encarnacion on there, twice? Are we treating poor Edwin unfairly?
• He might have been aging and crippled, but Junior was still an above average producer at the plate in his waning Reds years.
• Why is Derrek Lee's name auburn-colored? I hate formatting text.

And just for fun, the highest career OPS+ players active...
1. Barry Bonds (182)
2. Albert Pujols (170)
3. Frank Thomas (156)
4. Manny Ramirez (155)
5. Lance Berkman (148)
5. Jim Thome (148)
7. Vladimir Guerrero (147)
7. Alex Rodriguez (147)
9. Jason Giambi (146)
10. Chipper Jones (145)

Scouting Report: Johnny Cueto

If a pitcher posts these numbers (174 IP, 9-14, 4.81 ERA), trade bait comes to mind. But when you're a 22-year-old rookie from the Dominican who averaged 8.18 SOs/9IP with a 96-mph fastball, you're probably safe for the time being. This is Johnny Cueto.

Johnny is one of a few Baby Reds, along with Edinson, Jay, Joey and Brandon, who will be unfairly asked to carry the load in 2009. He models his game after one Pedro Martinez, who is similar in body type, delivery, ethinicity, and who never backs down from a cockfight.

In 2007, Johnny went through the entire minor league gauntlet, earning his second consecutive Reds Minor League Pitcher of the Year award. Thanks to the failings of highly touted prospect Homer Bailey, who has yet to grow his set of testicles, Johnny nailed down a spot at the back end of the rotation with his major league debut performance on April 3, 2008, in a 7-inning, 1 ER, 10 SO performance against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Even though Johnny was brutalized in many following starts, the Reds stuck by him and were rewarded with some solid outings. He is still learning to be a pitcher and he relied too heavily on a fastball that was often placed waist high over the center of the plate. These baseballs often ended up in shrimp boat nets in the Gulf of Mexico, deposited from the Ohio into the Mississippi River.

As Johnny grows into a man and daydreams less and less in between innings about that one time he almost touched a girl's private parts behind the dance hall in San Pedro de Macoris, he will have the potential to become a 1 or 2 starter on a playoff team down the road. This of course will be on the team he is traded to after the Reds can't afford to offer him a major league contract.

STAT WATCH: Johnny will presumably be the fourth starter this year behind Volquez, Harang and Arroyo, which instantly makes him one of the best up-and-coming fourth starters in the bigs, if there is such a category. Steady improvement is what we want from Johnny. An ERA under 4.00 would be a major achievement for a 23-year-old. We also do not want Johnny to contract an STD or wear his arm down in the offseason participating in another sport, beisbol. We also do not want to discover that Johnny falsified his papers and is really 37.