OBP: "Oh Brandon Phillips"

Brandon Phillips made it clear today that he doesn't believe in the idea of OBP, aka on-base percentage, aka the measurement of how often a batter reaches base. In an Enquirer article out today, Phillips had all sorts of interesting things to say. Here are some of the most interesting.

"I don't believe in that on-base percentage (stuff). That's overrated to me. If you get hits, you'll be on base. That's what it's about."

This sounds like something a good player with a low OBP would say, or someone who is confusing real baseball with video game baseball. We all know what Dusty said recently about OBP, in reference to Willy Taveras and his lack thereof--"Everyone talks about his on-base percentage. I like the way he gets in scoring position." It appears this backwards outlook has rubbed off on our bright young grinning star.

"I'm a hitter. I swing the bat. I'm an aggressive hitter. They want me to work on [being patient], and I'll try my best. But I'm a hitter."

These quotes explain a lot about Brandon, who doesn't seem to know the difference between being a hitter and a hacker. The latter might have a career SO/BB ratio of 3:1 like Brandon does. It's okay to be aggressive but you can really hurt your team in many ways by swinging at crap pitches, which Brandon is amazing at.

"My numbers were good last year. For me to hit 20-plus homers, steal 20-plus bags and have 70-plus RBI, that's a good season, especially for a second basemen."

Brandon sounds pretty defensive, and maybe he should be. When he puts it that way, yes, he did put up pretty solid numbers for a second basemen. But when you zoom out and see that all his offensive numbers went down at an age when numbers should spike, that for his 23 swipes he was nailed 10 times, that he might have netted more RBI had he not batted .225 in 71 ABs with two outs and runners in scoring position, those general numbers lose some luster.

"I think [the Reds new emphasis on speed] is a good thing--moving runners from first to second and second to third. It's good to have speed on the team. Speed kills. We've been relying on the home run for so many years. We've had eight losing seasons. The way I look at it: It's time for a change. Walt Jocketty brought that in. We're 100 percent behind him."

When the hell did Brandon Phillips become the Machurian Candidate? I can see Brandon saying this quote in a monotone droll, his eyes not focused on anything in front of him, a Reds PR person coming out to the podium and taking him by the arm, "Okay Brandon, that will be all for today, good job." Brandon doesn't respond and is walked out of the room and placed in his pod for the night. Seriously Brandon, get with it. Speed isn't nearly as effective when you have a .319 career OBP as a Red. When you learn to get on base, we become a much more dangerous team. And to say we've been relying on home runs for the past eight years, why not just come out and blame it on Dunn and Griff? What about the other six or seven batters during that period? Couldn't they have balanced out the home run attack with some good hitting and speed. Couldn't they have done something to help win games? And what about the scalliwag pitching during those years? Somebody cut my cord. I'm turning into a crank. There can't possibly be more, can there?

"I'm not a typical fourth hitter. But who else on the team is going to do it?"

I give up. Brandon, I like you, but we have some fundamental baseball disagreements. With that kind of attitude, you will never develop into a professional hitter as they say, one who can manipulate the strike zone and make the pitcher work overtime, one who can help the team by taking ball four instead golfing for strike three. If you raise your OBP 70 points, you are Joe Morgan. That's how good you can be. Now get out there and stop trying to be Wily Mo Pena.

Spring Training is Here (Take Your Shirt Off and Wave it Around Your Head Like a Helicopter edition)

1. After a 7-0 hosing of the AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays, I was highly entertained reading the Reds message boards on Reds.com and Cincinnati.com. After nine innings of Spring Training baseball, all those preseason predictions were reaffirmed. In short, we're going to the World Series!!!

One of my favorites from Reds.com...
"I was encouraged over one key stat on offense too. Only 5 strikeouts!!!!!!!!!!!! Again, I know this is only one game, but we have players who can make contact now, instead of swinging for the fences and missing most of the time! I hope too that this new trend continues! I'm looking forward to this year's ball club! I think we will be a lot of fun and will even surprise some Reds fans!"

Nine innings of a Spring Training game, and what do you know, SMALL BALL has arrived. And considering that 6 of our 7 runs came on homers, it's fairly clear this guy has a red Kool-aid mustache and no baseball friends. If the Reds would have lost today and struck out 13 times, the quote would have gone...
"It's okay that we struck out a lot today. It's only the first game of Spring Training. Everyone is going to be a little rusty. Oh, and also, if anybody on the message board wants to meet for lunch at LaRosa's tomorrow, call me 1-800-IMAKEPOOROBSERVATIONS."

2. You will not find recycled game recaps from Spring Training on The Red Scare. You will also not find microanalyzation of Spring Training box scores either as to the tune of the following example...

"Holy Smokes, Homer Bailey sure threw well today, retiring the side in the seventh. Insert speculative sentence that starts with, "I know this was only one game but..." Insert speculative sentence about how the Reds might use Homer out of the bullpen to start the season. Insert speculative sentence about how Homer has more to prove than anyone this spring. Insert speculative sentence questioning where Homer will start the year. Insert speculative sentence about you're own speculation. Finish paragraph with a sentence that ends, "...but that depends on what Dusty does."

I think that Spring Training speculation is tiresome and repititious. In short, I think roster spots are generally predetermined. If Homer Bailey throws 18 innings of shutout ball in Spring Training, I still don't care. If Brandon Phillips goes 0-56 in Spring Training, he will still start on Opening Day. If Laynce Nix goes 23-56 in Spring Training, he might not make the team.

3. Batting Brandon Phillips cleanup is quite possibly the most absurd thing I've ever heard, almost as baffling as when they batted Adam Dunn second. With a slew of left-handed power hitters over the last five years, the Reds have become obsessed with seperating the lefties and batting an alternate left-right-left-right order. Lineup construction these days is very similar to a children's game of follow the pattern. This is what the batting order should be, ignoring a million other scenarios-

1. Taveras
2. Dickerson/Hairston
3. Bruce
4. Votto
5. Phillips
6. Encarnacion
7. Gonzalez
8. Hernandez
9. Pitcher

My lineup puts three lefties in a row (Dickerson, Bruce, Votto), a mortal sin. But here's what makes it okay. Joey Votto is a .289 career hitter against lefties. He hits them almost as effectively as he hits righties. Votto is nearly a better hitter against his own side than the right-handed Brandon Phillips (career .294 BA against LHP). This makes the lefty-righty pattern obsolete. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. This is clear. There is no justification. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. If you think Brandon makes a good cleanup hitter, stop watching baseball.

Ranks: NL Central Second Basemen

1. Brandon Phillips, 28--CIN
2. Kaz Matsui, 33--HOU
3. Rickie Weeks, 26--MIL
4. Freddy Sanchez, 31--PIT
5. Mike Fontinot, 29--CHI
6. Aaron Miles, 33--CHI
7. Adam Kennedy, 33--STL

Brandon Phillips is number one. No questions here. It's a combination of two things really:
1.) He has speed, power, glove, youth and a winning smile.
2.) The others are essentially trade bait. They've all had a good season or two (except for Kennedy and Miles who are just terrible) which gives them each more value than a minor leaguer. Matsui looks more promising every year but keeps getting older and older. Weeks is the exact opposite (yes, he gets younger and younger). Sanchez plays for Pittsburgh which means he is incapable of amounting to anything for the rest of his life. Mike Fontinot had a year similar to Jeff Keppinger in 2007 but he still finds himself behind Aaron Miles on the Cubs depth chart, probably because he can only move two feet laterally to each side (life = cruel).

I was a bit harsh on Phillips in my scouting report, but my cell phone wasn't charged and I let my Cheerios get soggy that morning. I still think he swings too hard and doesn't get on base enough, but one can only be so perfect. Even if Brandon never does the 30/30 thing again, I'll be fine as long as he brings the D, gets OB and cuts the Ks. It's tough for NL second basemen these days. They seem to be dying off (Kent,...and...Kent). There's Mr. Utley, and who else? Dan Uggla, Kelly Johnson, Orlando Hudson? I guess it's Brandon Phillips.

Ranks: NL Central First Basemen

1. The Destroyer of All Things Spherical, 29--STL
2. Lance Berkman, 33--HOU
3. Prince Fielder, 25--MIL
4. Joey Votto, 25--CIN
5. Derrek Lee, 33--CHI
6. Adam LaRoche, 29--PIT

If you're a Reds fan, this list is rather depressing. The NL Central has a stranglehold on the rest of baseball with first base talent. Joey Votto really gets shafted here, and I was generous not to put Derrek Lee ahead of him as many others would.

There is no easier rank in baseball than placing Albert Pujols 1st on this list. Abolutely terrifying is the fact that Albert is coming off his best season (.357/.462/.653). He eats Lance Berkman's for breakfast, and Lance Berkman is amazing, a steady lock in the two spot. Did you know that Lance stole 18 bases last year and was only caught 4 times? That's 14 true stolen bases for someone with the nicknames Big Puma and Fat Elvis. Brandon Phillips only had 13 true stolen bases last year. Ouchies! If Lance can do it, so can you Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion and Alex Gonzalez.

Prince Fielder is 3rd, even though Joey's rookie numbers matched Prince's last year. They are the same age, but Prince has a 50 HR season under his double-sized belt. Derrek Lee, 5th on this list, was one of the more underrated players in the game until he went nuts in 2005 (.335/.418/.662). While he hasn't matched that production since, he is getting more recognition now, as his numbers begin to sag. Even Adam LaRoche, the last man on the list, has a career 114 OPS+. Damn Gina!

Joey Votto is not a defensive rock like Pujols or Lee, but he will get great practice as long as Edwin mans the hot corner. Joey might only be the 4th best first basemen in the NL Central, but he's probably 6th-8th in the NL right now--and he's just getting started. Joey will never put up Albert numbers and it would be unfair to expect Berkman numbers, but we can expect him to outperform Fielder and Lee this year. After all, he is our big bat.

Scouting Report: Alex Gonzalez, Who Does Exist

Offense:
Did you know that Alex Gonzalez has finished with an OPS+ below the league average in all 10 seasons? His best offensive stint occurred in 2007, his first year with the Reds, when he hit .272/.325/.468 with a 99 OPS+ in about two-thirds of a season. This was phenomenal for Alex compared to his career averages (.248/.295/.399 and an 80 OPS+). Because Alex is not a power hitter (106 HRs in 4,002 ABs) there is no reason why he strikes out as often as he does, every 4.9 ABs. Alex seems to have Brandon Phillips syndrome--he swings about three times too hard.

Defense:
Alex has more range than No Country For Old Men. If it's hit between second and third you can bet your bippy Alex is going to at least attempt to make a play. This might be why his career fielding percentage is under the league average for shortstops--he doesn't know when to eat it. If Alex backhands a Juan Pierre grounder deep in the hole and Juan has already crossed first base, there's a good chance Alex will still throw the ball. And there's a good chance that ball will go over Joey Votto's head and five runners will score because Bronson Arroyo is pitching and only Bronson Arroyo can have an inning that bad.

Overall:
There's no denying Alex's sexiness. When he successfully makes that play in the hole against Juan Pierre, there is not much else to do but fall out of your chair with the giggles. And when he follows that next inning with a solo shot into the left field bleachers, there is not much else to do but die. But like with any sexy person, it's easy to get caught up in the image. Numbers don't lie.

STAT WATCH: Alex needs to stop swinging and missing. 4.9 ABs/SO is not good for a Punch-and-Judy hitter. If he can cut it to 7 ABs/SO we will observe a pleasant rise in his offensive numbers. It will be hard to watch a .250-hitting Alex get the nod ahead of Jeff Keppinger, who will hit at least .300 if healthy. If Alex can hit .285, which he's never done, I'll be happy. This is another way of saying I probably won't be happy. In this blogger's humble opinion, shortstop should be Keppinger's to lose.

Show Me the Money, '09!

The official propaganda machine of the Cincinnati Reds, reds.com, released an article recently with some updated salary figures for the 2009 season. Among them, some changes from last year...

• Francisco Cordero is taking everyone out to dinner as the highest paid Red at $12 mil, roughly $171,000/inning.
• Aaron Harang, coming off his worst Reds season, is rewarded with a few more millions. Why not!
• Brandon Phillips, fresh from laying a turd at home plate last season, will get nearly double with $4.75 million (gotta love that Gold Glove bonus!).
• Alex Gonzalez continues to kkkkkiiiiiillllllllllllllll us.
• Bronson Arroyo now almost makes $10 million a year, not including his JTM advertising monopoly which is rumored at hundreds of dollars.
• Matt Belisle still has not received his paychecks from the last four years of his service.

The Best Hitters in the NL Central

One of the best ways to measure a hitter is adjusted OPS, or OPS+. If you already know what OPS+ is, I am sorry, bear with me. If not, you should pay attention. While standard OPS is simply on-base percentage plus slugging percentage (OBP + SLG), adjusted OPS is a complicated formula that takes into consideration ballpark factor (sorry Vinny Castilla) and league averages for OBP and SLG in that players league. The resulting number is the rate above the league average expressed as a percentage. All you really need to know is 100 always represents the league average. The higher above 100, the better. The farther under 100, the worse. For example, let's take Albert Pujols in 2008 when he finished with an astronomical 190 OPS+. Albert was damn near close to being twice as productive as the average major league hitter. The only player with a career OPS+ over 200 is Babe Ruth (207). Albert is tied for seventh in career OPS+ (170).

Here are the highest OPS+ seasons for the NL Central in 2007 and 2008 including everyone over 100 with at least a 400 AB season (sorry Jerry Hairston Jr.).

	2008				2007
1	A. Pujols	190		1	A. Pujols	157
2	L. Berkman	159		2	P. Fielder	156
3	R. Ludwick	150		3	R. Braun	153
4	C. Lee	144		4	A. Dunn	136
5	T. Glaus	131		T5	L. Berkman	131
6	A. Dunn	129		T5	D. Lee	131
T7	A. Ramirez	128		7	H. Pence	130
T7	P. Fielder	128		8	A. Ramirez	129
T7	R. Braun	128		T9	C. Hart	126
T7	R. Doumit	128		T9	C. Lee	126
11	N. McLouth	126		11	A. Soriano	123
12	J. Votto	124		12	K. Griffey Jr	119
13	A. LaRoche	123		T13	R. Weeks	108
14	A. Soriano	121		T13	A. LaRoche	108
15	G. Soto	120		15	X. Nady	107
16	R. Ankiel	119		T16	B. Phillips	105
17	M. DeRosa	118		T16	J. Wilson	105
18	J. Hardy	113		18	F. Sanchez	103
T19	M. Cameron	110		19	M. DeRosa	102
T19	D. Lee	110		20	E. Encarnac…	101
T21	E. Encarnac…	106		21	G. Jenkins	101
T21	K. Matsui	106		22	J. Hardy	100
23	H. Pence	105
24	S. Schumach..	102
25	K. Griffey Jr.	101

Some things that come to mind...

• Albert Pujols is a destroyer of all things spherical.
• Is Ryan Ludwick really that good?
• Adam Dunn was one of the Top 5 most productive hitters in the NL Central.
• Joey Votto had a very good rookie year and should only get better.
• Brandon Phillips finished with a rather low OPS+ for his breakthrough year, lower than Rickie Weeks and tied with Jack Wilson, who resembles Nosferatu.
• Well I'll be a monkey's ass, is that Edwin Encarnacion on there, twice? Are we treating poor Edwin unfairly?
• He might have been aging and crippled, but Junior was still an above average producer at the plate in his waning Reds years.
• Why is Derrek Lee's name auburn-colored? I hate formatting text.

And just for fun, the highest career OPS+ players active...
1. Barry Bonds (182)
2. Albert Pujols (170)
3. Frank Thomas (156)
4. Manny Ramirez (155)
5. Lance Berkman (148)
5. Jim Thome (148)
7. Vladimir Guerrero (147)
7. Alex Rodriguez (147)
9. Jason Giambi (146)
10. Chipper Jones (145)

Scouting Report: Brandon Phillips

Offense

It's amazing how often Phillips smiled for having such a sucky 2008 (.261 BA, .312 OBP, .442 SLG), a disappointing drop-off from a breakthrough 2007 (.288 BA, .331 OBP, .485 SLG). Brandon swings so hard that when he misses he spins around twice. Contact, Brandon. Contact.

Defense

A much-deserved Gold-Glove.

Overall

Because Brandon plays for the Reds, he is one of our best players. If he were on another team, he would be one of their better players. Of the seven everyday second basemen in the 2008 National League (3.1 Plate Appearances per game average qualifies as everyday according to ESPN), Brandon had the 5th best production behind Chase "God" Utley, Dan Uggla, Mark DeRosa and Kelly Johnson (that's right), and we're not counting Kaz Matsui, Orlando Hudson, Mike Fontenot (really?) and Ray "I will never retire" Durham, all of whom outhit Brandon in their incomplete seasons. Even in Brandon's breakthrough 2007, there were other NL second basemen who churned out stronger and more effecient numbers--God Utley, Jeff Kent, Hudson and that pesky Kelly Johnson. But Brandon gets bonus points for his speed (84 of 111 Stolen Bases in 3 years), his official Gold Glove status and his youth (he turns 28 in June).

STAT WATCH: If Brandon wants automatic consideration as a Top 5 NL second baseman (a status which most Reds fans have erroneously given him) he needs to start hitting for average and getting on base. He will never be Chase Utley, who can do anything he wants, and he isn't a true beefcake like Dan Uggla or Jeff Kent. He needs to study Orlando Hudson and Kelly Johnson, who effeciently set the table for the meat-eaters. Dusty should bat Brandon 2nd, never in the middle. Brandon, if you hit .290 with a .345 OBP, then good things will come to the Reds.