Spring Training, when will you end?

Edinson "getting the rust off"

This is the first year I've followed Reds Spring Training pitch by pitch. Let's just say I want to stab my eyes out with a spork. A person can only take so much speculation. Only 25 more days of torture! I think most fans grow more excited as the preseason trods along, but I find myself wanting to hurt my live-in girlfriend for no reason when I watch players like Richar, Rosales and Barker fart around the field playing dress up like a Red for a day. Oh and I almost forgot about Houston players Newhan, Sutton, Palmisano, Bogusevic and Mansella. I watched them play too--what thrills!

The speculation! The Spring Training cliches! I don't know if I can take it anymore. The highlight of today's game for me was when the Houston Astros radio announcer listed our starting defense, including Dennis Hopper in center field. It made me so happy at the moment, and now, thinking back on it, it is really sad how happy I was.

At least the World Baseball Classic has provided some diamond drama. You have to love how Joey Votto, playing for Canada, stroked a homer against America's best, Jake Peavy. And you have to be happy for Adam Dunn, who is carrying the load for the United States in the cleanup spot and getting oodles of praise from analysts. Son of a biscuit, he has looked good on the big stage, as close as he'll ever get to a playoff scenario (gypsy tears).

Throw out the statistics in Spring Training

They are practically useless for many reasons listed below. (I'll be borrowing here from a well-written Kansas City Royals blog article. Who knew someone associated with the Royals could produce something so beautiful. JK NYRoyal.)

1. The sample size is shrimpy. Nothing can be proven for a hitter in less than 40 ABs, which is what most fringe batters will get, and in the same way, for fringe starting pitchers who might get 15-20 IP, and relievers who might get 5-10 IP, if they're lucky.

2. The scrubs come out to play. Who are all of these people? I'm pretty sure one guy's name was Humpty McDougal.

3. Unreal play. Veterans usually set their motors on coast and pitchers tinker around with different pitches. Other players who are locks are just saving themselves and avoiding injury. When I pitched in high school (here we go), I remember fooling around with different grips and motions in the preseason because I could, and cause it was kind of fun.

4. Cactus League air factor. The ball carries well in Arizona, or so I hear.

I know that Spring Training has its benefits, but preseason stats should never be used to judge a player. The coaching staff could give a rat's Belisle about stats. They are looking at the nuances of development in younger players: the added velocity on a fastball, the refined location, the shortened swing, the improved eye, the use of the whole field, the jump on the stolen base, and other intangibles. In veterans, Spring Training is mostly a pulse checker: can he still get the bat off his shoulders? Can he still judge a fly ball? It's very similar to an auto emission's test. More than likely, you're gonna pass.

Here are some deceiving Spring Trainings from last year's team...

Joey Votto--38 ABs, .158 BA, .263 SLG (result: best all-around hitter on the team)
Corey Patterson--22 ABs, .455 BA, .545 SLG (result: you would have done better than Corey)
Drew Anderson--33 ABs, .394 BA, .485 SLG (result: no soup for you)
Andy Green--28 ABs, .357 BA, .786 SLG (result: he bagged your groceries last night)

Spring Training cliches
I listened to a broadcast recently (I forget which one. They all blend together.) where the announcer described a player's timing as being out of sorts after the player was late on a fastball and early on a changeup. "He's just getting the rust off," the announcer said. In the player's next AB, he smoked a 450 ft. homer. The announced said, "He's really zeroed in this spring." This is a microcosm of what Spring Training means to me.

Some past Reds Spring Training records

2008 17-15

2007 18-12

2006 22-11

2005 17-15

2004 17-16

OBP: "Oh Brandon Phillips"

Brandon Phillips made it clear today that he doesn't believe in the idea of OBP, aka on-base percentage, aka the measurement of how often a batter reaches base. In an Enquirer article out today, Phillips had all sorts of interesting things to say. Here are some of the most interesting.

"I don't believe in that on-base percentage (stuff). That's overrated to me. If you get hits, you'll be on base. That's what it's about."

This sounds like something a good player with a low OBP would say, or someone who is confusing real baseball with video game baseball. We all know what Dusty said recently about OBP, in reference to Willy Taveras and his lack thereof--"Everyone talks about his on-base percentage. I like the way he gets in scoring position." It appears this backwards outlook has rubbed off on our bright young grinning star.

"I'm a hitter. I swing the bat. I'm an aggressive hitter. They want me to work on [being patient], and I'll try my best. But I'm a hitter."

These quotes explain a lot about Brandon, who doesn't seem to know the difference between being a hitter and a hacker. The latter might have a career SO/BB ratio of 3:1 like Brandon does. It's okay to be aggressive but you can really hurt your team in many ways by swinging at crap pitches, which Brandon is amazing at.

"My numbers were good last year. For me to hit 20-plus homers, steal 20-plus bags and have 70-plus RBI, that's a good season, especially for a second basemen."

Brandon sounds pretty defensive, and maybe he should be. When he puts it that way, yes, he did put up pretty solid numbers for a second basemen. But when you zoom out and see that all his offensive numbers went down at an age when numbers should spike, that for his 23 swipes he was nailed 10 times, that he might have netted more RBI had he not batted .225 in 71 ABs with two outs and runners in scoring position, those general numbers lose some luster.

"I think [the Reds new emphasis on speed] is a good thing--moving runners from first to second and second to third. It's good to have speed on the team. Speed kills. We've been relying on the home run for so many years. We've had eight losing seasons. The way I look at it: It's time for a change. Walt Jocketty brought that in. We're 100 percent behind him."

When the hell did Brandon Phillips become the Machurian Candidate? I can see Brandon saying this quote in a monotone droll, his eyes not focused on anything in front of him, a Reds PR person coming out to the podium and taking him by the arm, "Okay Brandon, that will be all for today, good job." Brandon doesn't respond and is walked out of the room and placed in his pod for the night. Seriously Brandon, get with it. Speed isn't nearly as effective when you have a .319 career OBP as a Red. When you learn to get on base, we become a much more dangerous team. And to say we've been relying on home runs for the past eight years, why not just come out and blame it on Dunn and Griff? What about the other six or seven batters during that period? Couldn't they have balanced out the home run attack with some good hitting and speed. Couldn't they have done something to help win games? And what about the scalliwag pitching during those years? Somebody cut my cord. I'm turning into a crank. There can't possibly be more, can there?

"I'm not a typical fourth hitter. But who else on the team is going to do it?"

I give up. Brandon, I like you, but we have some fundamental baseball disagreements. With that kind of attitude, you will never develop into a professional hitter as they say, one who can manipulate the strike zone and make the pitcher work overtime, one who can help the team by taking ball four instead golfing for strike three. If you raise your OBP 70 points, you are Joe Morgan. That's how good you can be. Now get out there and stop trying to be Wily Mo Pena.

How Many Wins This Year? (feat. the 2000 Cincinnati Reds and T-Pain)

The last winning Reds season was 2000 when we finished 85-77, good for 2nd in the division, still ten wins behind the pennant-winning Cardinals. That was Griff's first year. My, how things change.

National League Ranks

5th in total runs (825)

4th in batting average (.274)

5th in home runs (200)

6th in OPS+ (103)

5th in ERA (4.33)

T-4th in ERA+ (109)

The pitching staff featured starters Steve Parris, Rob Bell, Ron Villone, Pete Harnisch, Denny Neagle, Osvaldo Fernandez, Elmer Dessens and relievers Danny Graves, Scott Sullivan and Scott Williamson. The offense featured Benito Santiago, Pokey Reese, Barry Larkin, Aaron Boone, Dmitri Young, Ken Griffey Jr., Dante Bichette, Chris Stynes, Michael Tucker and Alex Ochoa, all of whom finished with an OPS+ over 100 for the exception of Santiago and Reese.

The 2008 team finished 74-88, 5th in the division.

National League Ranks

12th in total runs (704)
16th in batting average (.247)

4th in home runs (187)

14th in OPS+ (93)

13th in ERA (4.55)

9th in ERA+ (99)

The 2009 pitching staff is in position to be better than the 2000 squad. I still have a hard time believing we finished at 85 wins with a 1. Steve Parris 2. Rob Bell 3. Ron Villone rotation for most of the year. If the 2009 staff can pitch to potential and become a Top-5 staff in the NL, as was the 2000 staff (still not sure how that happened), then we have a chance at 85 wins. Holding us back will be a young, developing offense. For 85 wins to occur, many of our hitters will need career years or breakout years or not-bad years.

Starting with 74 wins, let's do some math...

Not having Josh Fogg = +3 wins

Not having Matt Belisle = +1 win

Not having 2008 Homer Bailey = +1 win

Johnny Cueto a year older = +2 wins

Aaron Harang not smoking crack = +2 wins

Not having Adam Dunn = -1 win

366 Taveras ABs over 366 Patterson ABs = +1 win

Offensive improvement from Phillips, Encarnacion, Votto and Bruce = +5 wins

The bullpen not topping last years performance= -2 wins

Best case scenario: 86 wins, 2nd in the division, Wildcard!!!

Worst case scenario: 76 wins, 5th in the division, Two of diamonds

My scenario: 81 wins, 3rd in the division, Queen of hearts

And now.........T-Pain

Spring Training is Here (Take Your Shirt Off and Wave it Around Your Head Like a Helicopter edition)

1. After a 7-0 hosing of the AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays, I was highly entertained reading the Reds message boards on Reds.com and Cincinnati.com. After nine innings of Spring Training baseball, all those preseason predictions were reaffirmed. In short, we're going to the World Series!!!

One of my favorites from Reds.com...
"I was encouraged over one key stat on offense too. Only 5 strikeouts!!!!!!!!!!!! Again, I know this is only one game, but we have players who can make contact now, instead of swinging for the fences and missing most of the time! I hope too that this new trend continues! I'm looking forward to this year's ball club! I think we will be a lot of fun and will even surprise some Reds fans!"

Nine innings of a Spring Training game, and what do you know, SMALL BALL has arrived. And considering that 6 of our 7 runs came on homers, it's fairly clear this guy has a red Kool-aid mustache and no baseball friends. If the Reds would have lost today and struck out 13 times, the quote would have gone...
"It's okay that we struck out a lot today. It's only the first game of Spring Training. Everyone is going to be a little rusty. Oh, and also, if anybody on the message board wants to meet for lunch at LaRosa's tomorrow, call me 1-800-IMAKEPOOROBSERVATIONS."

2. You will not find recycled game recaps from Spring Training on The Red Scare. You will also not find microanalyzation of Spring Training box scores either as to the tune of the following example...

"Holy Smokes, Homer Bailey sure threw well today, retiring the side in the seventh. Insert speculative sentence that starts with, "I know this was only one game but..." Insert speculative sentence about how the Reds might use Homer out of the bullpen to start the season. Insert speculative sentence about how Homer has more to prove than anyone this spring. Insert speculative sentence questioning where Homer will start the year. Insert speculative sentence about you're own speculation. Finish paragraph with a sentence that ends, "...but that depends on what Dusty does."

I think that Spring Training speculation is tiresome and repititious. In short, I think roster spots are generally predetermined. If Homer Bailey throws 18 innings of shutout ball in Spring Training, I still don't care. If Brandon Phillips goes 0-56 in Spring Training, he will still start on Opening Day. If Laynce Nix goes 23-56 in Spring Training, he might not make the team.

3. Batting Brandon Phillips cleanup is quite possibly the most absurd thing I've ever heard, almost as baffling as when they batted Adam Dunn second. With a slew of left-handed power hitters over the last five years, the Reds have become obsessed with seperating the lefties and batting an alternate left-right-left-right order. Lineup construction these days is very similar to a children's game of follow the pattern. This is what the batting order should be, ignoring a million other scenarios-

1. Taveras
2. Dickerson/Hairston
3. Bruce
4. Votto
5. Phillips
6. Encarnacion
7. Gonzalez
8. Hernandez
9. Pitcher

My lineup puts three lefties in a row (Dickerson, Bruce, Votto), a mortal sin. But here's what makes it okay. Joey Votto is a .289 career hitter against lefties. He hits them almost as effectively as he hits righties. Votto is nearly a better hitter against his own side than the right-handed Brandon Phillips (career .294 BA against LHP). This makes the lefty-righty pattern obsolete. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. This is clear. There is no justification. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. If you think Brandon makes a good cleanup hitter, stop watching baseball.

Random Musings on Defense, Speed and Pitching

1. Defense, speed and pitching. That's how we're going to win this year. You've heard it from Bob Castenelli. You've heard it from Walt Jocketty. You've heard it from Dusty. And you've heard it from all the fans drinking the red Kool-aid. That's fine. Every year there are new reasons to be excited, and how can you not be a little excited for another season of Reds baseball on the horizon.

2. So we couldn't win during the long ball era. I guess we should blame that on Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr., and not on starting pitchers Matt Belisle, Eric Milton, Elizardo Ramirez, Brandon Claussen, Ramon Ortiz, Luke Hudson, Paul Wilson, Jose Acevedo, Cory Lidle, Todd Van Poppel, Ryan Dempster (when he sucked), Jimmy Haynes, Chris Rietsma, Lance Davis, Osvaldo Fernandez and the various management teams who acquired these players.

3. Ryan Howard's 2008 line: .251/.339/.543, 12.7 ABs/HR, 3.07 ABs/SO

Adam Dunn's 2008 line: .236/.386/.513, 12.9 ABs/HR, 3.15 ABs/SO

Ryan Howard finishes 2nd in MVP voting and his team wins the World Series. Adam Dunn is shown the door, traded to Arizona for potential 5th starter Micah Owings.

Point: It helps to be surrounded by good players.

4. Similar batters comparable to Adam Dunn through age 28 as compiled by Baseball Reference: Darryl Strawberry, Jose Canseco, Harmon Killebrew, Rocky Colavito, Reggie Jackson, Troy Glaus, Roger Maris.

Similar batters comparable to Chris Dickerson/Jerry Hairston Jr./Jonny Gomes: who cares.

Point: I would sacrifice some defense to have a lumber bat in the current Reds lineup. The World Champion Phillies surrounded Howard with good hitters and speed. If the Reds had kept Adam Dunn, they could have formed a similar balance, but instead, we released him just as all the pieces were starting to fall in place.

5. Often in baseball, the term "defense, pitching and speed" is masked language for "we're kinda poor."

Scouting Report: Jeff Keppinger

Offense:

No matter how hard you try, you will probably not strikeout Jeff Keppinger, who led the National League with 19.1 ABs/SO. That is certainly tidy. Just ask Adam Dunn, sloppy bastard, who averaged 3.15 ABs/SO. There is no secret to what Jeff does. He simply puts the bat on the ball. He is a prototypical 2-hitter. He is so, so good at advancing runners and hitting the ball where it's pitched. He has the special talent of picking a spot in the infield and hitting the ball there. That is harder than it looks. He had a tremendous 2007 in part-time action (123 OPS+), but then took a major dunk in his pants in 2008 (70 OPS+).

Defense:

Ignoring Jeff's resemblance to Elmer Fudd in body type and height of hat, he surpassed expectations as a shortstop even though he is not fluid or graceful, doesn't have a strong arm, and is white. Simply put, Jeff is fundamental, which I believe is still considered a compliment.

Overall:

Wherever Jeff goes, a starting infielder has a horrific injury and Jeff steps in. Did you hear that Edwin?--You could be next. After Jeff stamped his major league ticket in 2007 with a team saving performance, he got a taste of his own, fracturing his patella 147 ABs into 2008. Up until then, he was batting .320/.365/.442, similar to his excellent 2007 line. In the 311 ABs after his return, however, he hit .238/.281/.299 - a brutal first-hand account of what happens when, God forbid, you fracture a patella. Jeff is fully rehealed from his injury, but then again, so is Alex Gonzalez, who apparently is real. In order to get some ABs this year, Jeff might have to learn how to play left field, or wait for Edwin to "fall" down the dugout steps.

STAT WATCH: If Keppinger is healthy and in the line-up, he will hit, I think. Most other Reds fans think so too, they think. Most would give Jeff the starting job to lose at shortstop, but unfortunately, Alex Gonzalez, who I hear does actually exist in our world, will be handed the job without question. This is sad for Jeff, but if Gonzalez has forgotten how to play the game, this is good for Jeff. Bat over .300 Jeff.

The Best Hitters in the NL Central

One of the best ways to measure a hitter is adjusted OPS, or OPS+. If you already know what OPS+ is, I am sorry, bear with me. If not, you should pay attention. While standard OPS is simply on-base percentage plus slugging percentage (OBP + SLG), adjusted OPS is a complicated formula that takes into consideration ballpark factor (sorry Vinny Castilla) and league averages for OBP and SLG in that players league. The resulting number is the rate above the league average expressed as a percentage. All you really need to know is 100 always represents the league average. The higher above 100, the better. The farther under 100, the worse. For example, let's take Albert Pujols in 2008 when he finished with an astronomical 190 OPS+. Albert was damn near close to being twice as productive as the average major league hitter. The only player with a career OPS+ over 200 is Babe Ruth (207). Albert is tied for seventh in career OPS+ (170).

Here are the highest OPS+ seasons for the NL Central in 2007 and 2008 including everyone over 100 with at least a 400 AB season (sorry Jerry Hairston Jr.).

	2008				2007
1	A. Pujols	190		1	A. Pujols	157
2	L. Berkman	159		2	P. Fielder	156
3	R. Ludwick	150		3	R. Braun	153
4	C. Lee	144		4	A. Dunn	136
5	T. Glaus	131		T5	L. Berkman	131
6	A. Dunn	129		T5	D. Lee	131
T7	A. Ramirez	128		7	H. Pence	130
T7	P. Fielder	128		8	A. Ramirez	129
T7	R. Braun	128		T9	C. Hart	126
T7	R. Doumit	128		T9	C. Lee	126
11	N. McLouth	126		11	A. Soriano	123
12	J. Votto	124		12	K. Griffey Jr	119
13	A. LaRoche	123		T13	R. Weeks	108
14	A. Soriano	121		T13	A. LaRoche	108
15	G. Soto	120		15	X. Nady	107
16	R. Ankiel	119		T16	B. Phillips	105
17	M. DeRosa	118		T16	J. Wilson	105
18	J. Hardy	113		18	F. Sanchez	103
T19	M. Cameron	110		19	M. DeRosa	102
T19	D. Lee	110		20	E. Encarnac…	101
T21	E. Encarnac…	106		21	G. Jenkins	101
T21	K. Matsui	106		22	J. Hardy	100
23	H. Pence	105
24	S. Schumach..	102
25	K. Griffey Jr.	101

Some things that come to mind...

• Albert Pujols is a destroyer of all things spherical.
• Is Ryan Ludwick really that good?
• Adam Dunn was one of the Top 5 most productive hitters in the NL Central.
• Joey Votto had a very good rookie year and should only get better.
• Brandon Phillips finished with a rather low OPS+ for his breakthrough year, lower than Rickie Weeks and tied with Jack Wilson, who resembles Nosferatu.
• Well I'll be a monkey's ass, is that Edwin Encarnacion on there, twice? Are we treating poor Edwin unfairly?
• He might have been aging and crippled, but Junior was still an above average producer at the plate in his waning Reds years.
• Why is Derrek Lee's name auburn-colored? I hate formatting text.

And just for fun, the highest career OPS+ players active...
1. Barry Bonds (182)
2. Albert Pujols (170)
3. Frank Thomas (156)
4. Manny Ramirez (155)
5. Lance Berkman (148)
5. Jim Thome (148)
7. Vladimir Guerrero (147)
7. Alex Rodriguez (147)
9. Jason Giambi (146)
10. Chipper Jones (145)

Our Next Left Fielder...

Criteria for vacancy
1. Needs to be a free-agent
2. Needs to be a left fielder
3. Must possess a power bat
4. Must not be counted on to carry the franchise
5. Must be better than Rocco Baldelli

Hmmmm. This sounds like someone familiar.

Seriously folks, why did we trade Adam Dunn? The Reds now realize that it’s kind of hard to replace a 40 HR-100 RBI guy with a career .381 OBP. Sure, he’s a defensive liability. Sure, he hits for low average. Sure, his large, bumbly frame makes it look like he’s not trying very hard. But we unfairly counted on him to lead a below-average franchise and we never surrounded him with serious talent. If the Big Donkey’s numbers stayed the same and the Reds won 90 games annually, we would be on our knees for some Donkey Dick. Unfortunately, as the losing continued, Donk, our most visible player, shouldered most of the blame.

And now, here are the Reds, scrambling to find a left field power bat. The remaining options are--not including Manny--Rocco Baldelli, Garrett Anderson, Moises Alou, Luis Gonzalez, Jacque Jones, Jay Payton, Emil Brown and…Adam Dunn!!! Holy shit!!!


Would you take a second chance on him? I would.

The Best Offensive Seasons of the Past 15 Years

Hands down, the best offensive season of the past fifteen years came from a man named Kevin "I Don't Need No Stinkin' Glove" Mitchell in the strike-shortened 1994 season. The Reds finished 66-48 in 104 games and were not given a chance to win the World Series (figures). Mitchell was on pace for 47 Dongs, 121 RBIs, a .326 BA, .429 OBP and 681 SLG!!! But this season just wasn't meant to be. Mitchell finished the year with 310 ABs, 30 Dongs and 77 RBIs, with his averages staying the same. Not too shabby for two-thirds of a year.

Sidenote: Legend has it that during the Mets 1986 Championship run, Kevin Mitchell decapitated his girlfriend's cat. This is according to Doc Gooden's autobiography Heat. Gooden says he was held hostage during the situation.

Moving on, here are the next best individual offensive seasons since 1994...

	Player	Year	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	PROD	HR	RBI	SB
2	B. Larkin	1996	517	.298	.410	.567	.977	33	89	36
3	R. Sanders	1995	484	.306	.397	.579	.976	28	99	36
4	A. Dunn	2004	568	.266	.388	.569	.957	46	102	6
5	S. Casey	1999	594	.332	.399	.539	.938	25	99	0
6	B. Larkin	1995	496	.319	.394	.492	.886	15	66	51
7	S. Casey	2004	571	.324	.381	.534	.915	24	99	2
8	K. Griffey	2000	520	.271	.387	.556	.943	40	118	6
9	K. Griffey	2005	491	.301	.369	.576	.945	35	92	0
10	A. Dunn	2007	522	.264	.386	.554	.940	40	106	9
11	A. Dunn	2005	543	.247	.387	.540	.927	40	101	5
12	B. Larkin	1998	538	.309	.397	.504	.901	17	72	26
13	S. Casey	2000	480	.315	.385	.517	.902	20	85	1
14	E. Davis	1996	415	.287	.394	.523	.917	26	83	23

RBIs and Stolen Bases are cut off on this chart. Larkin had 36, 51 and 26 steals respectively. Sanders had 36. Davis had 23. The only +100 RBI seasons on the list came from Dunn (102, 106, 101) and Griffey (118). Casey had 99 RBIs twice. So close.

Some things that come to mind...
A.) Barry Larking was amazing (Brandon Phillips who?)
B.) Reggie Sanders and Eric Davis were my favorites growing up.
C.) Adam Dunn gets no respect.
D.) When healthy*, Griff was the best player on the team (*unlucky bastard).
E.) Sean Casey was a good hitter, and a huge dork.