John Fay accomplishes the impossible

This is hard for me, because from what I know, John Fay is a good Enquirer reporter, as honest a source as you're going to get in reference to the Reds. He also seems like a polite man, one who dresses semi-casually and would make a tremendous uncle. You'll never catch John in his undies on a Saturday morning knock, let's just put it that way.

So you could imagine my anticipation when I read the title of his story yesterday on the Enquirer web page:

Rotation takes shape

and the lede: Reds manager Dusty Baker revealed on Friday how the rest of the rotation will shape up behind Opening Day starter Aaron Harang.

Hold on for one second while I change my pants because I seem to have saturated them with urine. It appeared that Dusty made the doomsday decision of selecting Owings or Bailey for the 5th starter spot! The decision would have been slightly premature with 20 days 'til Opening Day, but then again, we're talking about Dusty here. The man has some dumbfounding methods.

To make a long story short (and I wouldn't even bother reading the article even though I've posted a link to it thus giving you the option ro read it even after my suggestion not to read it, because I'm pro-choice), the article revealed the rest of the rotation after Harang to be (pay close attention): Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto and...and...ummm....nothing........no mention of anything about the 5th starter.....oh, wait, except for an Edinson quote about how he was happy not to be the 5th starter this year. "Damn you John," the blogger screams at the top of his lungs, holding and shaking his fist in the air.

And with that, John Fay accomplished the impossible by writing an article about the set pitching rotation without mentioning Homer Bailey or Micah Owings--not one mention of either. You should know that most reporters do not get final say on the title of their story (that's a job for the pompous editors), but even still, John's lede was cruel and unusual punishment for all Reds fans. If you read the article not knowing anything about baseball or the Reds, you probably just assume that the Reds are going with a 4-man rotation.

And the dazzling finale:

Cueto will start Sunday in place of Nick Masset. Masset will be used in relief of Cueto. "(Cueto's) only warmed up as a starter," Baker said.

Riggghhhhhttttt?

Dusty Bottoms (#1)

Per the Enquirer...

"[Jay Bruce] is starting to swing good. He's swinging better than he was last [Spring Training]. Last year his average was high but his production wasn't as good as it is this year."

Jay Bruce has batted 10 times this spring. He has 2 singles and 1 homer. Last spring he batted .262 in 42 ABs. Just so we're clear.

OBP: "Oh Brandon Phillips"

Brandon Phillips made it clear today that he doesn't believe in the idea of OBP, aka on-base percentage, aka the measurement of how often a batter reaches base. In an Enquirer article out today, Phillips had all sorts of interesting things to say. Here are some of the most interesting.

"I don't believe in that on-base percentage (stuff). That's overrated to me. If you get hits, you'll be on base. That's what it's about."

This sounds like something a good player with a low OBP would say, or someone who is confusing real baseball with video game baseball. We all know what Dusty said recently about OBP, in reference to Willy Taveras and his lack thereof--"Everyone talks about his on-base percentage. I like the way he gets in scoring position." It appears this backwards outlook has rubbed off on our bright young grinning star.

"I'm a hitter. I swing the bat. I'm an aggressive hitter. They want me to work on [being patient], and I'll try my best. But I'm a hitter."

These quotes explain a lot about Brandon, who doesn't seem to know the difference between being a hitter and a hacker. The latter might have a career SO/BB ratio of 3:1 like Brandon does. It's okay to be aggressive but you can really hurt your team in many ways by swinging at crap pitches, which Brandon is amazing at.

"My numbers were good last year. For me to hit 20-plus homers, steal 20-plus bags and have 70-plus RBI, that's a good season, especially for a second basemen."

Brandon sounds pretty defensive, and maybe he should be. When he puts it that way, yes, he did put up pretty solid numbers for a second basemen. But when you zoom out and see that all his offensive numbers went down at an age when numbers should spike, that for his 23 swipes he was nailed 10 times, that he might have netted more RBI had he not batted .225 in 71 ABs with two outs and runners in scoring position, those general numbers lose some luster.

"I think [the Reds new emphasis on speed] is a good thing--moving runners from first to second and second to third. It's good to have speed on the team. Speed kills. We've been relying on the home run for so many years. We've had eight losing seasons. The way I look at it: It's time for a change. Walt Jocketty brought that in. We're 100 percent behind him."

When the hell did Brandon Phillips become the Machurian Candidate? I can see Brandon saying this quote in a monotone droll, his eyes not focused on anything in front of him, a Reds PR person coming out to the podium and taking him by the arm, "Okay Brandon, that will be all for today, good job." Brandon doesn't respond and is walked out of the room and placed in his pod for the night. Seriously Brandon, get with it. Speed isn't nearly as effective when you have a .319 career OBP as a Red. When you learn to get on base, we become a much more dangerous team. And to say we've been relying on home runs for the past eight years, why not just come out and blame it on Dunn and Griff? What about the other six or seven batters during that period? Couldn't they have balanced out the home run attack with some good hitting and speed. Couldn't they have done something to help win games? And what about the scalliwag pitching during those years? Somebody cut my cord. I'm turning into a crank. There can't possibly be more, can there?

"I'm not a typical fourth hitter. But who else on the team is going to do it?"

I give up. Brandon, I like you, but we have some fundamental baseball disagreements. With that kind of attitude, you will never develop into a professional hitter as they say, one who can manipulate the strike zone and make the pitcher work overtime, one who can help the team by taking ball four instead golfing for strike three. If you raise your OBP 70 points, you are Joe Morgan. That's how good you can be. Now get out there and stop trying to be Wily Mo Pena.

Spring Training is Here (Take Your Shirt Off and Wave it Around Your Head Like a Helicopter edition)

1. After a 7-0 hosing of the AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays, I was highly entertained reading the Reds message boards on Reds.com and Cincinnati.com. After nine innings of Spring Training baseball, all those preseason predictions were reaffirmed. In short, we're going to the World Series!!!

One of my favorites from Reds.com...
"I was encouraged over one key stat on offense too. Only 5 strikeouts!!!!!!!!!!!! Again, I know this is only one game, but we have players who can make contact now, instead of swinging for the fences and missing most of the time! I hope too that this new trend continues! I'm looking forward to this year's ball club! I think we will be a lot of fun and will even surprise some Reds fans!"

Nine innings of a Spring Training game, and what do you know, SMALL BALL has arrived. And considering that 6 of our 7 runs came on homers, it's fairly clear this guy has a red Kool-aid mustache and no baseball friends. If the Reds would have lost today and struck out 13 times, the quote would have gone...
"It's okay that we struck out a lot today. It's only the first game of Spring Training. Everyone is going to be a little rusty. Oh, and also, if anybody on the message board wants to meet for lunch at LaRosa's tomorrow, call me 1-800-IMAKEPOOROBSERVATIONS."

2. You will not find recycled game recaps from Spring Training on The Red Scare. You will also not find microanalyzation of Spring Training box scores either as to the tune of the following example...

"Holy Smokes, Homer Bailey sure threw well today, retiring the side in the seventh. Insert speculative sentence that starts with, "I know this was only one game but..." Insert speculative sentence about how the Reds might use Homer out of the bullpen to start the season. Insert speculative sentence about how Homer has more to prove than anyone this spring. Insert speculative sentence questioning where Homer will start the year. Insert speculative sentence about you're own speculation. Finish paragraph with a sentence that ends, "...but that depends on what Dusty does."

I think that Spring Training speculation is tiresome and repititious. In short, I think roster spots are generally predetermined. If Homer Bailey throws 18 innings of shutout ball in Spring Training, I still don't care. If Brandon Phillips goes 0-56 in Spring Training, he will still start on Opening Day. If Laynce Nix goes 23-56 in Spring Training, he might not make the team.

3. Batting Brandon Phillips cleanup is quite possibly the most absurd thing I've ever heard, almost as baffling as when they batted Adam Dunn second. With a slew of left-handed power hitters over the last five years, the Reds have become obsessed with seperating the lefties and batting an alternate left-right-left-right order. Lineup construction these days is very similar to a children's game of follow the pattern. This is what the batting order should be, ignoring a million other scenarios-

1. Taveras
2. Dickerson/Hairston
3. Bruce
4. Votto
5. Phillips
6. Encarnacion
7. Gonzalez
8. Hernandez
9. Pitcher

My lineup puts three lefties in a row (Dickerson, Bruce, Votto), a mortal sin. But here's what makes it okay. Joey Votto is a .289 career hitter against lefties. He hits them almost as effectively as he hits righties. Votto is nearly a better hitter against his own side than the right-handed Brandon Phillips (career .294 BA against LHP). This makes the lefty-righty pattern obsolete. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. This is clear. There is no justification. Brandon is not a cleanup hitter. If you think Brandon makes a good cleanup hitter, stop watching baseball.

Scouting Report: The Great American Ball Player

Offense:
In the first 12 games (46 ABs) of Jay's career, he batted .457/.554/.739 and was hastily elected into the Reds Hall of Fame--and why not, with his natural, smooth swing and the clean cut boyishness. Can't you hear all those guys you work with getting in your face about it. "They should have brought him up sooner, man. I told you. I knew it. I should be frickin GM." In the 96 games that followed, when Jay hit .229/.280/.417, eerily matching Corey Patterson's career numbers, those same guys you work with covered quickly and easily. "Man, you gotta give him more time to develop. He's so frickin young, which reminds me, you know who sucks--Corey Patterson."

Defense:
Bruce can play all three outfield positions but his range and arm are best suited for right field. Because Bruce is so young, he still gets angry when Coach Baker puts him in the outfield instead of pitcher or shortstop.

Overall:
Jay was the fifth youngest player in the NL last year, born in April 1987. This gives Jay a great excuse when he plays bad--it's like Edwin Encarnacion times 1,000. But if there's one thing we are taught when we are young , it's never to trust a person with two first names. I am slightly weary of Jay, not just because of the name thing, but mostly due to his resemblance of Austin Kearns. Austin was a 7th overall pick, Jay a 12th. Austin broke into the lineup at age 22, one year older than Jay. In Austin's first 13 games (37 ABs) he hit .432/.553/.676, but went on to finish the year with much better numbers than Jay did. They both have sweet swings. They are both above-average defenders. They were both marketed to shit by the Reds front office and the guys you work with before they ever played a game. They are both white and could fly away with their ears. The list goes on.

STAT WATCH: Sadly for Jay, he is expected to lead the Reds offensive calvary into battle this year. Most fans are absolutely sure Jay is a can't-miss future All-Star, but a few of us aren't sure if he can even be the next Austin Kearns. Did I mention in 413 ABs in his rookie year, he walked 33 times and whiffed 110. I know, I know, he'll get better. In order for the Reds to finish above .500, The Great American Ball Player needs to grow up fast and hit .310/.400/.550. This is a tall order. Realistically, Jay is going to hit .275/.345/.490, which still isn't bad for any 22-year-old not named Jay Bruce. Just to be clear--I'm pulling for Jay, I really am. I want him to be the next Josh Hamilton minus the smack and hookers.

Scouting Report: Little Norris Hopper

Offense
Little Norris was sidelined most of 2008 and eventually bowed out for reconstructive elbow surgery. This was unfortunate for Little Norris, who made his mark in 2007 batting .329 in 307 AB. Almost 40% of his hits never reached that vast expanse of green that is the outfield (20 bunts and 17 infield hits), but as far as swinging and making terrible contact to the point where the ball ricochets off the extreme bottom or nub of the bat then squirts down the foul line and rolls to a stop in no man's land between home, third and the mound, Norris was an assassin. What we love about Little Norris is that he carries himself with a dignified aire that says, "I meant to do that." No one will ever know but Norry.

Defense
Because Little Norris is so tiny, three Norry steps is the equivalent of one Jay Bruce step. Even with this handicap, Little Norris zips around the outfield with relative ease, covering good ground. He is not an alley-stalker or wall-climber, but he will attempt to "go get it"--that is, when he is not collecting nuts and storing food for the winter.

Overall
Little Norris is a valuable bench player. He brings good speed, can fill in at all three outfield positions and has solid sacrificing ability. He is the only Reds player who can properly execute what is known as a bunt. When Norris performed this trick for the first time, all the Reds rose to the top of the dugout. "What the hell just happened," cried Edwin Encarnacion. "Will Norris be okay?"

STAT WATCH: We won't ask Little Norris for much in 2009, mostly because we shouldn't have to, but when June rolls around and Willy Taveras is batting .230, we might begin to see more of him, although that decision would be too easy, right Dusty?

Scouting Report: Where do you start with Bronson Arroyo?

Here?


Or here?


Covering the Goo Goo Dolls?


Okay, this one is actually kinda funny...

Here is what we know...

He has flowing blonde locks that are occasionally altered into cornrows. Proceed with caution.

He is a certified man-whore.

He plays guitar and sings in the Bronson Arroyo Band. They cover Goo Goo Dolls, Matchbox 20, Staind and Oasis. Check out his myspace, seriously. And here's the other one.

Oh, and I almost forgot, he plays baseball.

In 2008, Bronson's 4.77 ERA was his highest ever for a full season (this would be considered a fantastic year for Matt Belisle). Even so, he still finished with a 15-11 record (his highest Win total with the Reds), which goes to show you that Wins and Losses are, for the most part, irrelevant. Now, I'm not a big proponent of making excuses or saying, "If you take out a few bad games here or there, he would have had a better year." Well, in Bronson's case, he would really love to have appoximately 6 innings erased from the 2008 season.

Date	IP	H	ER	Locker Room Tears
April 23, HOU	3.2	10	8	573
May 4, @ATL	1.1	7	7	887
Jun 24, @TOR	1	11	10	9,999
TOTAL	6	28	25	11,459

These are some severe outings, folks. That looks like the box score to a Sega RBI Baseball game. Jesus Christ Dusty, don't you know when it's time to pull the frickin cord (I don't know, maybe after 6 hits, 5 runs and 1 out). It wouldn't surprise me if Bronson's evil twin brother, Braxton, tied him up and took the mound. That blasted Braxton! If Bronson would have stopped him, thus preventing an additional 25 Earned Runs in 6 bloody innings, he would have finished with a respectable 3.76 ERA on the season (in your dreams Matt Belisle).

STAT WATCH: Bronson, since becoming a full-time starter in 2004, you've sported a 4.14 ERA. For the Reds to be successful, you need to at least keep it below 4.00 bro. Remember when you were an All-Star in 2006 and had a 3.29 ERA? Do that again.