How Many Wins This Year? (feat. the 2000 Cincinnati Reds and T-Pain)

The last winning Reds season was 2000 when we finished 85-77, good for 2nd in the division, still ten wins behind the pennant-winning Cardinals. That was Griff's first year. My, how things change.

National League Ranks

5th in total runs (825)

4th in batting average (.274)

5th in home runs (200)

6th in OPS+ (103)

5th in ERA (4.33)

T-4th in ERA+ (109)

The pitching staff featured starters Steve Parris, Rob Bell, Ron Villone, Pete Harnisch, Denny Neagle, Osvaldo Fernandez, Elmer Dessens and relievers Danny Graves, Scott Sullivan and Scott Williamson. The offense featured Benito Santiago, Pokey Reese, Barry Larkin, Aaron Boone, Dmitri Young, Ken Griffey Jr., Dante Bichette, Chris Stynes, Michael Tucker and Alex Ochoa, all of whom finished with an OPS+ over 100 for the exception of Santiago and Reese.

The 2008 team finished 74-88, 5th in the division.

National League Ranks

12th in total runs (704)
16th in batting average (.247)

4th in home runs (187)

14th in OPS+ (93)

13th in ERA (4.55)

9th in ERA+ (99)

The 2009 pitching staff is in position to be better than the 2000 squad. I still have a hard time believing we finished at 85 wins with a 1. Steve Parris 2. Rob Bell 3. Ron Villone rotation for most of the year. If the 2009 staff can pitch to potential and become a Top-5 staff in the NL, as was the 2000 staff (still not sure how that happened), then we have a chance at 85 wins. Holding us back will be a young, developing offense. For 85 wins to occur, many of our hitters will need career years or breakout years or not-bad years.

Starting with 74 wins, let's do some math...

Not having Josh Fogg = +3 wins

Not having Matt Belisle = +1 win

Not having 2008 Homer Bailey = +1 win

Johnny Cueto a year older = +2 wins

Aaron Harang not smoking crack = +2 wins

Not having Adam Dunn = -1 win

366 Taveras ABs over 366 Patterson ABs = +1 win

Offensive improvement from Phillips, Encarnacion, Votto and Bruce = +5 wins

The bullpen not topping last years performance= -2 wins

Best case scenario: 86 wins, 2nd in the division, Wildcard!!!

Worst case scenario: 76 wins, 5th in the division, Two of diamonds

My scenario: 81 wins, 3rd in the division, Queen of hearts

And now.........T-Pain

R.I.P. Josh Fogg

Josh Fogg

(2007-2008)

"If you need someone

to lose the game for you

I am certainly

up to the challenge."

In 2007, Josh earned the nickname "Dragon Slayer" from his Colorado Rockies teammates after pitching a stretch of games outdueling the likes of Brandon Webb, Curt Schilling, etc. This was most likely an example of Rockies players trying to lift Josh's spirits after roughly 948 innings of getting the shit knocked out of him.

Josh brought his 72-mph fastball to Cincinnati in 2008, along with a career 4.90 ERA and a Joker smile. When most didn't think it possible for Josh to pitch worse, he shocked the world and gave the Reds 78.3 innings of 7.58 ERA baseball (a superb ERA for wiffle ball). The farthest he made it into a game was 6 innings. He surely contemplated pitching underhand once or twice, just to see.

STAT WATCH: The Dragon Slayer is currently unsigned. Imagine that. Let's see if Josh ever pitches in a major league game again. If he does, it will give hope to Matt Belisle, which is sad and unfair.