3.01.2009

How Many Wins This Year? (feat. the 2000 Cincinnati Reds and T-Pain)

The last winning Reds season was 2000 when we finished 85-77, good for 2nd in the division, still ten wins behind the pennant-winning Cardinals. That was Griff's first year. My, how things change.
National League Ranks
5th in total runs (825)
4th in batting average (.274)
5th in home runs (200)
6th in OPS+ (103)
5th in ERA (4.33)
T-4th in ERA+ (109)

The pitching staff featured starters Steve Parris, Rob Bell, Ron Villone, Pete Harnisch, Denny Neagle, Osvaldo Fernandez, Elmer Dessens and relievers Danny Graves, Scott Sullivan and Scott Williamson. The offense featured Benito Santiago, Pokey Reese, Barry Larkin, Aaron Boone, Dmitri Young, Ken Griffey Jr., Dante Bichette, Chris Stynes, Michael Tucker and Alex Ochoa, all of whom finished with an OPS+ over 100 for the exception of Santiago and Reese.

The 2008 team finished 74-88, 5th in the division.

National League Ranks
12th in total runs (704)
16th in batting average (.247)
4th in home runs (187)
14th in OPS+ (93)
13th in ERA (4.55)
9th in ERA+ (99)

The 2009 pitching staff is in position to be better than the 2000 squad. I still have a hard time believing we finished at 85 wins with a 1. Steve Parris 2. Rob Bell 3. Ron Villone rotation for most of the year. If the 2009 staff can pitch to potential and become a Top-5 staff in the NL, as was the 2000 staff (still not sure how that happened), then we have a chance at 85 wins. Holding us back will be a young, developing offense. For 85 wins to occur, many of our hitters will need career years or breakout years or not-bad years.

Starting with 74 wins, let's do some math...

Not having Josh Fogg = +3 wins
Not having Matt Belisle = +1 win
Not having 2008 Homer Bailey = +1 win
Johnny Cueto a year older = +2 wins
Aaron Harang not smoking crack = +2 wins
Not having Adam Dunn = -1 win
366 Taveras ABs over 366 Patterson ABs = +1 win
Offensive improvement from Phillips, Encarnacion, Votto and Bruce = +5 wins
The bullpen not topping last years performance= -2 wins

Best case scenario: 86 wins, 2nd in the division, Wildcard!!!
Worst case scenario: 76 wins, 5th in the division, Two of diamonds
My scenario: 81 wins, 3rd in the division, Queen of hearts

And now.........T-Pain

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