Offense:Did you know that Alex Gonzalez has finished with an OPS+ below the league average in all 10 seasons? His best offensive stint occurred in 2007, his first year with the Reds, when he hit .272/.325/.468 with a 99 OPS+ in about two-thirds of a season. This was phenomenal for Alex compared to his career averages (.248/.295/.399 and an 80 OPS+). Because Alex is not a power hitter (106 HRs in 4,002 ABs) there is no reason why he strikes out as often as he does, every 4.9 ABs. Alex seems to have Brandon Phillips syndrome--he swings about three times too hard.
Defense:
Alex has more range than No Country For Old Men. If it's hit between second and third you can bet your bippy Alex is going to at least attempt to make a play. This might be why his career fielding percentage is under the league average for shortstops--he doesn't know when to eat it. If Alex backhands a Juan Pierre grounder deep in the hole and Juan has already crossed first base, there's a good chance Alex will still throw the ball. And there's a good chance that ball will go over Joey Votto's head and five runners will score because Bronson Arroyo is pitching and only Bronson Arroyo can have an inning that bad.
Overall:
There's no denying Alex's sexiness. When he successfully makes that play in the hole against Juan Pierre, there is not much else to do but fall out of your chair with the giggles. And when he follows that next inning with a solo shot into the left field bleachers, there is not much else to do but die. But like with any sexy person, it's easy to get caught up in the image. Numbers don't lie.
STAT WATCH: Alex needs to stop swinging and missing. 4.9 ABs/SO is not good for a Punch-and-Judy hitter. If he can cut it to 7 ABs/SO we will observe a pleasant rise in his offensive numbers. It will be hard to watch a .250-hitting Alex get the nod ahead of Jeff Keppinger, who will hit at least .300 if healthy. If Alex can hit .285, which he's never done, I'll be happy. This is another way of saying I probably won't be happy. In this blogger's humble opinion, shortstop should be Keppinger's to lose.
Posts
While I understand Gonzalez is not a great hitter, I'm sure you are aware that outside of 2007 Keppinger's OPS+ was the pits also:
ReplyDelete2005 80
2006 86
2007 123
2008 70
As for defense, fielding percentage isn't the best choice to judge how much someone brings to a team on defense. RZR/OOZ are better for measuring that.
I think the two guys are actually pretty close in terms of overall contribution.
I agree that they're pretty close overall. Keppinger has more O potential and Gonzalez more D. I'd like more O from this lineup though.
ReplyDeleteThe OPS+ numbers you posted for Kepp are slightly wrong and misleading.
In 2004 (not 2005), that 80 OPS+ was in 160 ABs, less than a third of a season, his first taste of big league pitching. And for what it's worth, he finished that cup of coffee with a .284 average, not too shabby.
In 2005, he fractured his kneecap for the first time and missed the entire season.
In 2006, he posted an 86 OPS+ in extremely limited action, 60 ABs. No matter his line, this sample size is worthless.
In 2007, age 27, Kepp finally sees some PT (241 ABs) with the Reds and has a breakthrough year, 123 OPS+.
He is rewarded in 2008 with more PT and is batting .324/.373/.446 in 148 ABs before he reinjures his knee. He hobbles through the rest of the season and finishes with a 70 OPS+ in 459 ABs.
So yes, while Kepp's numbers seem to be majorally in the pits, they actual show solid offensive promise if we look deeper. I'd just really like to see if Jeff can stay healthy and put up numbers in an everyday role.
I also agree that fielding percentage is not the best indicator of range/fielding ability, but that's implied in the post.
It's just one of those things. I'm a Kepp guy, you're a Gonzo guy. Hang their pictures up, close your eyes and throw a dart. I just think Gonzo hurts us more at the plate than Kepp does in the field. I hope Gonzo proves me wrong though!
FYI, I'm not really a Kepp or Gonzo guy. I just happen to have Gonzo for a buck in a deep keeper fantasy league and have a Google alert set for him trying to find out what the chances are of him getting the starting gig.
ReplyDeleteOf course with Dusty, you never know what he will do, so it may be tough to predict playing time for the Reds SS.
But thanks for the additional detail on OPS+ numbers for Kepp. I had just looked them up and wasn't aware of his splits based on the knee injury.